Match Info

National - Round 24

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Caen		Châteauroux

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.3	3.75
	2	3.61	3.9
	1.78	3.36	4.29	Watch
	1.85	3.1	3.6
	1.83	3.4	3.87	Watch
	1.95	3.35	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.94)	3.35 ↑ (3.29)	3.84 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caen
48.6%

Draw
27.4%

Châteauroux
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.8%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

23.7%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Châteauroux has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Caen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Châteauroux than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Châteauroux could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Caen - Châteauroux Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mandrea A. (G) 17. Labonne R. 12. Mazie O. 27. Debohi D. 31. Kimboma J. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 22. Hafid M. 18. Henry V. 26. Etuin M. 11. Gnanduillet A. 19. Botella I.	16. Lavallee L. (G) 17. Magassa B. 12. Koembo J. 4. Diarra D. 7. Ahmed A. 8. Dembele S. (C) 10. Freitas R. 39. Beneddine M. 20. Bouaoune I. 9. Mupemba N. 5. Wade P.
Substitutes
24. Milliner L. 32. Portut K. 14. Rajot L. 2. Vinicius Gomes	27. Boussaid W. 21. Chahid Y. 13. Jean C. 28. Mopila S. 19. Piquionne L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Hafid M. ⚽, Labonne R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Wade P. ↓, Jean C. ↑,
46', Kimboma J. 🟨,
55', Ahmed A. ↓, Boussaid W. ↑,
57', Botella I. ↓, Rajot L. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Etuin M. (Own goal),
71', Freitas R. ↓, Piquionne L. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Hafid M. ⚽, Henry V. (A),
75', Gnanduillet A. ↓, Duville-Parsemain A. ↑,
82', Duville-Parsemain A. 🟨,
86', 🟨,
87', Henry V. ↓, Vinicius Gomes ↑,
88', Mazie O. ↓, Portut K. ↑,
88', Koembo J. ↓, Mopila S. ↑,
90+2', Labonne R. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Bouaoune I. ⚽, Piquionne L. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caen won 0.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Châteauroux may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Caen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Caen won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Caen won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Caen	9	5	0	4	17:12	5	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
28.02.26	Valenciennes - Caen	2:1 ✺
20.02.26	Caen - Sochaux	1:3 ✺
13.02.26	Dijon - Caen	3:3 ✺
06.02.26	Caen - Fleury 91	1:0 ✺
30.01.26	Versailles - Caen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTWL
- Châteauroux
French Ligue 3
27.02.26	Châteauroux - Paris 13 Atletico	0:1 ✺
13.02.26	Châteauroux - Rouen FC	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Orleans - Châteauroux	2:2 ✺
30.01.26	Châteauroux - Le Puy	0:2 ✺
23.01.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Châteauroux	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
26.09.25	Châteauroux - Caen	2:1
French Ligue 2
20.03.21	Châteauroux - Caen	2:2
28.11.20	Caen - Châteauroux	1:1
06.03.20	Châteauroux - Caen	2:1
04.10.19	Caen - Châteauroux	1:1
21.03.14	Caen - Châteauroux	1:1
18.10.13	Châteauroux - Caen	0:2

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