Match Info

National - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Caen		Le Puy

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.2	3.5
	1.92	3.25	3.75
	1.93	3.33	4.25
	1.05	8.75	25.00	Watch
	1.94	3.28	3.85	Watch
	1.92	3.25	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.88)	4.18 ↑ (3.37)	7.34 ↑ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Caen
60%

Draw
25.5%

Le Puy
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

27.4%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27.5%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Caen's performance.

Le Puy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Le Puy might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Caen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Puy than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Le Puy could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Caen - Le Puy Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Caen will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caen: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Caen will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mandrea A. (G) 27. Debohi D. 2. Vinicius Gomes 28. Etuin M. 22. Hafid M. 14. Rajot L. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 5. Dali Amar B. 12. Mazie O. 11. Gnanduillet A. 7. Diakite A.	30. Carvalho M. (G) 5. Zogba M. 6. Soualhia A. 25. Mohamed I. 14. Goumot E. 26. Esmel H. 8. Akkal S. 22. Xhemo R. (C) 7. Faty M. 15. Rodrigues C. 12. Irabor B.
Substitutes
25. Bagbema Z. 19. Botella I. 18. Henry V. 17. Labonne R. 24. Milliner L.	17. Bouleghcha I. 11. Darnaud A. 18. Gauthier A. 21. Sakho T. 10. Wade P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Goumot E. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Rajot L. ⚽, Diakite A. (A),
38', Esmel H. 🟨,
41', Xhemo R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Rodrigues C. 🟨,
60', Faty M. ↓, Bouleghcha I. ↑,
60', Xhemo R. ↓, Wade P. ↑,
64', Gnanduillet A. ↓, Botella I. ↑,
72', Diakite A. ↓, Milliner L. ↑,
73', Dali Amar B. ↓, Bagbema Z. ↑,
73', Irabor B. ↓, Gauthier A. ↑,
78', Rajot L. 🟨,
80', Bagbema Z. 🟨,
82', Hafid M. ↓, Henry V. ↑,
83', Henry V. 🟨,
83', Mazie O. ↓, Labonne R. ↑,
87', Mandrea A. 🟨,
88', Soualhia A. ↓, Darnaud A. ↑,
88', Esmel H. ↓, Sakho T. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 0, Milliner L. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 15).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Caen is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
26.09.25	Châteauroux - Caen	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Caen - Valenciennes	0:0 ✺
12.09.25	Sochaux - Caen	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Caen - Dijon	0:0 ✺
29.08.25	Fleury 91 - Caen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTTTW
- Le Puy Foot 43 Auvergne
French Ligue 3
26.09.25	Le Puy - Paris 13 Atletico	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Stade Briochin - Le Puy	1:2 ✺
12.09.25	Le Puy - Rouen FC	0:3 ✺
05.09.25	Orleans - Le Puy	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Le Puy - Bourg-Péronnas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWLTT

Upcoming Matches