Match Info

Cymru South - Round 9

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday


	Caerphilly Athletic		Pontypridd United

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.3
	2.58	3.69	2.31
	2.5	3.94	2.41	Watch
	2.55	3.65	2.25
	2.6	3.74	2.39
	2.48	3.55	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.68)	3.68 ↑ (3.63)	2.33 (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caerphilly Athletic
36.1%

Draw
24.8%

Pontypridd United
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

25.6%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

24.9%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caerphilly Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caerphilly Athletic than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Caerphilly Athletic - Pontypridd United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Stephens J. ⚽,
19', 0 - 2, Bevan J. ⚽,
37', 1 - 2, Skiverton F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 11th and 4th).

Caerphilly has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Pontypridd shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Pontypridd	9	6	1	2	23:16	7	19
14	Caerphilly	9	2	2	5	9:17	-8	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caerphilly Athletic
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
04.09.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerphilly Athletic	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerphilly Athletic	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Ynyshir Albions	2:1 ✺
07.08.26	Caerphilly Athletic - Cardiff Draconians	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LTWWT
- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
11.09.26	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	0:1 ✺
28.08.26	Pure Swansea - Pontypridd United	4:4 ✺
21.08.26	Pontypridd United - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Cardiff Draconians - Pontypridd United	1:4 ✺
07.08.26	Pontypridd United - Pontardawe Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTWWW

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