Match Info

Cymru South - Round 8

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday


	Pontypridd United		Afan Lido

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.85	3.90
	1.69	4.13	3.86
	1.8	3.95	3.84	Watch
	1.67	4.05	3.80
	1.66	3.98	4.03
	1.64	3.95	3.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.54)	3.99 ↓ (4.14)	3.89 ↓ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
53.9%

Draw
22.7%

Afan Lido
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

22%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

20.6%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pontypridd United's form might have worsened.

Afan Lido has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pontypridd United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Afan Lido than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Afan Lido, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Pontypridd United - Afan Lido Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 0 - 1, Griffiths L. (Penalty Awarded),
90+2', Angel L. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 2.

Pontypridd has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Afan Lido has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pontypridd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Pontypridd is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Pontypridd will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 2.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontypridd won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 3.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Pontypridd	9	6	1	2	23:16	7	19
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13:17	-4	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
28.08.26	Pure Swansea - Pontypridd United	4:4 ✺
21.08.26	Pontypridd United - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Cardiff Draconians - Pontypridd United	1:4 ✺
07.08.26	Pontypridd United - Pontardawe Town	3:2 ✺
01.08.26	Treowen Stars - Pontypridd United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWWWW
- Afan Lido
Welsh Cymru South
04.09.26	Baglan Dragons - Afan Lido	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Afan Lido - Ynyshir Albions	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Afan Lido	5:2 ✺
21.08.26	Afan Lido - Pontardawe Town	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Carmarthen Town - Afan Lido	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
30.01.26	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	2:0
15.11.25	Afan Lido - Pontypridd United	2:2
11.03.25	Afan Lido - Pontypridd United	2:0
26.07.24	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	3:2
Welsh League Cup
20.09.22	Afan Lido - Pontypridd United	2:0
Welsh Cymru South
03.12.21	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	8:1
19.11.21	Afan Lido - Pontypridd United	3:2

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