Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón (Cajamarca)

Referee: Segura R. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cajamarca		Ayacucho

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.2
	2.1	3.1	3.65
	2.19	3.1	3.62
	2.02	3.12	3.95	Watch
	2.21	3.15	3.44	Watch
	1.8	3.45	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.79)	3.16 ↓ (3.68)	3.64 ↓ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cajamarca
44.9%

Draw
29.5%

Ayacucho
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

25.4%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

21.8%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cajamarca's form might have worsened.

Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cajamarca - Ayacucho Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cajamarca (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ayacucho (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Cajamarca (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cajamarca will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cajamarca (votes: 3 - 75%). Ayacucho (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Campos D. (G) 16. Villamarin R. 27. Serra P. 5. Aguirre J. 25. Rosell Delgado J. A. 13. Oncoy F. 8. Mejia C. 26. Vega J. 20. Vasquez A. 10. Ramirez E. 11. Quintero J.	23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 55. Leon Canchanya B. H. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M. 77. Lucumi J. 22. Bilbao J. 18. Orue D. 88. Arakaki H. 8. Ramirez D. 12. Caro D. 96. Peral P.
Substitutes
14. Alvarez L. 22. Balanta G. 15. Cantt J. 28. De la Cruz L. 17. Garro L. 12. Heredia M. (G) 6. Lujan J. 19. Palacios B. 3. Rugel L.	25. Ataupillco J. 27. Barrios K. 99. Caballero F. 66. de la Cruz A. 3. Ganoza M. 1. Izaguirre P. (G)
Coaches
Lisi H.	Castellanos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Ramirez D. 🟨,
35', Lucumi J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Perez Azambuya E. M. ↓, Caballero F. ↑,
46', Vega J. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
46', Ramirez D. ↓, de la Cruz A. ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Arakaki H. ⚽, Lucumi J. (A),
65', Lucumi J. ↓, Barrios K. ↑,
70', Palacios B. ↓, Balanta G. ↑,
70', Oncoy F. ↓, Cantt J. ↑,
76', Arakaki H. ↓, Salcedo R. ↑,
78', de la Cruz A. 🟨,
81', Aguirre J. 🟨,
85', Aguirre J. 🟥,
85', Vasquez A. ↓, Lujan J. ↑,
90+6', Valencia J. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Cajamarca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cajamarca: Aparicio K. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cajamarca won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cajamarca won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
23.08.25	Sporting Cristal - Cajamarca	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Cajamarca - Juan Pablo II College	0:0 ✺
11.08.25	Alianza Atlético - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
04.08.25	Cajamarca - Cusco	1:2 ✺
25.07.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Cajamarca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 TTLLT
- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
22.08.25	Ayacucho - Escuela Municipal Binacional	Canceled ✺
17.08.25	FBC Melgar - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
03.08.25	Sport Huancayo - Ayacucho	3:1 ✺
30.07.25	Ayacucho - Sport Boys	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 ?LLLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
11.04.25	Ayacucho - Cajamarca	0:1
19.08.22	Cajamarca - Ayacucho	2:1
01.04.22	Ayacucho - Cajamarca	3:2
25.09.21	Cajamarca - Ayacucho	0:2
30.04.21	Cajamarca - Ayacucho	1:3
09.10.20	Ayacucho - Cajamarca	1:1
28.10.19	Cajamarca - Ayacucho	2:0

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