Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)

Referee: Palomino M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ayacucho		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.5	1.9	Watch
	3.8	3.25	1.82
	3.9	3.55	1.9	Watch
	3.81	3.52	1.93
	3.95	3.08	2.03	Watch
	4.4	3.3	1.8
	4.19	3.55	1.92	Watch
	4.1	3.35	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.99 ↓ (4.14)	3.39 ↑ (3.35)	1.9 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
23.4%

Draw
27.6%

Alianza Lima
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

28.2%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

28.8%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

Ayacucho - Alianza Lima Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Lima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Alianza Lima will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 55. Leon Canchanya B. H. 25. Ataupillco J. 4. Yovera A. 88. Arakaki H. 22. Bilbao J. 16. Vilchez J. 18. Orue D. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M. 12. Caro D.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 3. Estrada J. 5. Zambrano C. (C) 4. Noriega E. 21. Trauco M. 16. Succar M. 7. Gaibor F. 28. Burlamaqui A. 73. Arrasco M. 10. Ceppelini P. 25. Gentile G.
Substitutes
26. Aquino H. 99. Caballero F. 66. de la Cruz A. 35. Ferreyra K. 3. Ganoza M. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 77. Lucumi J. 5. Tamariz A. 6. Tuesta J.	17. Archimbaud J. 9. Barcos H. 1. Campos A. (G) 19. Cantero A. 15. Castillo J. 24. Chavez G. 6. Garces R. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R.
Coaches
Castellanos S.	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Orue D. 🟨,
41', Gentile G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Yovera A. ↓, Lucumi J. ↑,
46', Perez Azambuya E. M. ↓, Caballero F. ↑,
46', Gaibor F. ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
46', Arrasco M. ↓, Archimbaud J. ↑,
59', Vilchez J. ↓, de la Cruz A. ↑,
62', Leon Canchanya B. H. 🟨,
63', Gentile G. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
67', Estrada J. ↓, Huaman M. ↑,
70', Zambrano C. ↓, Chavez G. ↑,
72', Archimbaud J. 🟨,
76', 0 - 1, Ceppelini P. (Pen),
77', Ceppelini P. 🟨,
90+3', Noriega E. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Alianza Lima is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Ayacucho: Correa Flores C. A. (Red Card)

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Delgado J. (Broken nose) Lavandeira Hernandez P. (Tendon Injury) Paolo Guerrero (Ankle Injury) Pena S. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Ayacucho: Barrios K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Alianza Lima: Cantero A. (Muscle Injury) Cari P. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 18:33. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayacucho won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
03.08.25	Sport Huancayo - Ayacucho	3:1 ✺
30.07.25	Ayacucho - Sport Boys	0:0 ✺
26.07.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Ayacucho	1:2 ✺
20.07.25	Ayacucho - Atlético Grau	1:2 ✺
13.07.25	Ayacucho - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 LTWLW
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
05.08.25	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	0:0 ✺
31.07.25	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
27.07.25	Alianza Lima - Alianza Atlético	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.07.25	Grêmio - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.07.25	Cusco - Alianza Lima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.25	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0
25.10.22	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	0:1
26.06.22	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0
18.07.21	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	4:1
26.10.20	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	1:2
23.02.20	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	2:0
08.09.19	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0

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