Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Héroes de San Ramón (Cajamarca)

Referee: Lozano S. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App


	Cajamarca		Comerciantes Unidos

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.05	3.45	3.35
	2.01	3.51	3.39
	2.14	3.58	3.14	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.3
	2	3.48	3.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.64)	3.45 ↓ (4.14)	3.35 ↓ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cajamarca
45.4%

Draw
26.9%

Comerciantes Unidos
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

22.3%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

21.5%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cajamarca's form might have worsened.

Comerciantes Unidos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Comerciantes Unidos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cajamarca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Comerciantes Unidos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Cajamarca - Comerciantes Unidos Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cajamarca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera C. (G) 15. Gallardo J. 14. Rodas A. 22. Almiron M. 13. Lagos R. 11. Arrasco M. 6. Miguez P. 23. Andrade T. 93. Rodriguez A. 9. Barcos H. (C) 17. Palacios B.	17. Cordova M. (G) 30. Guzman P. 40. Alcedo F. 6. Rodriguez J. 15. Cossio A. 4. Arias A. (C) 18. Rodriguez A. 11. Herrera J. 50. Olivares J. 25. Vilca R. 13. Perez Azambuya E. M.
Substitutes
32. Alegria P. 12. Aspajo S. (G) 5. Bernaola B. 27. Betancourt J. 44. Gomez C. 20. Meza C. 18. Orejuela J. G. 25. Paucar E. 19. Peralta S.	8. Ayovi W. 10. Carpio Ferro M. P. 7. Carranza M. 99. Charun J. (G) 5. Correa Flores C. A. 20. Parodi J. 14. Salinas T. 3. Vasquez C. 2. Vilchez Y.
Coaches
Silvestri C.	Biaggio C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', Alcedo F. 🟨,
10', Gallardo J. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Palacios B. ⚽, Barcos H. (A),
32', 2 - 0, Rodriguez A. ⚽, Lagos R. (A),
34', Herrera J. 🟨,
37', Gallardo J. ↓, Gomez C. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Herrera J. ↓, Carranza M. ↑,
46', Olivares J. ↓, Ayovi W. ↑,
51', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
54', 2 - 1, Perez Azambuya E. M. (Penalty Awarded),
55', Arrasco M. ↓, Orejuela J. G. ↑,
62', Orejuela J. G. 🟥,
65', Rodriguez A. ↓, Salinas T. ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Ayovi W. ⚽, Vilca R. (A),
72', Alcedo F. ↓, Parodi J. ↑,
73', Rodriguez A. ↓, Betancourt J. ↑,
74', Palacios B. ↓, Meza C. ↑,
74', 2 - 3, Parodi J. ⚽, Vilca R. (A),
79', 2 - 4, Rodriguez J. ⚽,
85', 3 - 4, Barcos H. ⚽, Andrade T. (A),
90+1', Arias A. 🟨,
90+4', Perez Azambuya E. M. 🟨,
90+5', Carranza M. ↓, Vilchez Y. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 11).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Cajamarca is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Cajamarca: Lavandeira Hernandez P. (Suspended) Medina J. (Broken Hand)

There will not play in Comerciantes Unidos: F. Rojas (Elbow Injury) Sen M. (Red Card) Villete A. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	FC Cajamarca	11	3	2	6	18:24	-6	11
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	18:19	-1	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
06.03.26	Atlético Grau - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Universitario de Deportes - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Sport Huancayo - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
09.02.26	Cajamarca - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLWLT
- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Cajamarca	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Cusco - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Los Chankas	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Alianza Lima - Comerciantes Unidos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLTL

Cajamarca - Comerciantes Unidos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide