Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 19

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra (Cutervo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Comerciantes Unidos		ADT Tarma

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2	Watch
	3.7	3.45	1.92
	3.55	3.25	2.1
	2.73	3.24	2.53	Watch
	3.56	3.36	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (2.71)	3.32 ↑ (3.18)	2.12 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Unidos
27.5%

Draw
28.2%

ADT Tarma
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

29.2%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

30.5%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Comerciantes Unidos's form might have worsened.

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting ADT Tarma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Comerciantes Unidos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for ADT Tarma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	6.2%	75%

Comerciantes Unidos - ADT Tarma Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Comerciantes Unidos will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). ADT will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for ADT: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - ADT (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - ADT (1.41) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): ADT Tarma will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. ADT (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Villete A. (G) 25. Guzman W. 40. Alcedo F. 37. Vilchez Y. 36. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 22. Marchioni J. 34. Chipao R. 17. Cardenas P. 20. Parodi J. 11. Lecaros A. 9. Sen M. (C)	1. Grados C. (G) 23. Montenegro D. 28. Soto J. 16. Choi G. 65. Gutierrez A. 24. Perez A. 88. Barreto G. 14. Cabello C. 29. Robles A. 7. Rojas J. 9. Rengifo H.
Substitutes
15. Carpio Ferro M. P. 1. Caytuiro F. (G) 76. Figueroa N. 99. Nunez J. 6. Paico K. 35. Paredes G. 29. Saavedra C. 85. Sanchez G.	15. Alvino J. 31. Bazan N. 6. Bersano F. 25. Hermoza E. (G) 3. Narvaez J. 18. Pinto O. 22. Reyes J. 99. Rodriguez P.
Coaches
Biaggio C.	Melgarejo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Parodi J. 🟨,
41', Montenegro D. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
45+4', Reyes J. 🟨,
45+5', Rojas J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lecaros A. ↓, Carpio Ferro M. P. ↑,
46', Gutierrez A. ↓, Bersano F. ↑,
53', Reyes J. 🟥,
54', Sen M. 🟨,
57', Alcedo F. ↓, Saavedra C. ↑,
64', Rengifo H. ↓, Bazan N. ↑,
70', Saavedra C. ↓, Sanchez G. ↑,
78', Cardenas P. ↓, Paredes G. ↑,
86', Barreto G. ↓, Narvaez J. ↑,
88', Alfaro Martinez G. E. 🟥,
90', Rojas J. 🟨,
90+2', Perez A. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 9).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Comerciantes Unidos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

ADT might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Comerciantes Unidos: Garcia L. (Red Card) Marina J. (Yellow Cards) Tecilla N. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in ADT: Cedron V. (Knee Injury) Moyano A. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Comerciantes Unidos: Cardenas P. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).

Including home match between the teams, Comerciantes Unidos won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
08.11.25	Ayacucho - Comerciantes Unidos	Abandoned ✺
01.11.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Sporting Cristal	1:4 ✺
24.10.25	Juan Pablo II College - Comerciantes Unidos	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Cusco - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.7 ?LWWT
- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
10.11.25	ADT Tarma - Los Chankas	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - ADT Tarma	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	ADT Tarma - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
12.10.25	Ayacucho - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	ADT Tarma - Sporting Cristal	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
11.07.25	ADT Tarma - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0
28.10.24	Comerciantes Unidos - ADT Tarma	0:0
19.05.24	ADT Tarma - Comerciantes Unidos	2:0

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