Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra (Cutervo)

Referee: Perez R. B. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Comerciantes Unidos		Cajamarca

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.88	3.6	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.4
	2.22	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.26	3.14	3.29
	2.23	3.24	3.26	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.25
	2.25	2.88	3.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.88)	3.01 ↑ (2.75)	3.24 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Unidos
40.3%

Draw
31%

Cajamarca
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

34%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

35.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Unidos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Comerciantes Unidos's performance.

Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Comerciantes Unidos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	37.5%	37.5%

Comerciantes Unidos - Cajamarca Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Comerciantes Unidos will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Cajamarca will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cajamarca: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Comerciantes Unidos (2.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Comerciantes Unidos (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Cordova M. (G) 3. Vasquez C. 2. Vilchez Y. 6. Rodriguez J. 15. Cossio A. 18. Rodriguez A. 4. Arias A. 11. Herrera J. 50. Olivares J. 25. Vilca R. 9. Sen M. (C)	1. Campos A. (C) 17. Garro L. 27. Serra P. 2. Duarte B. 13. Caro D. 8. Dioses D. 15. Cantt J. 22. Camacho D. 10. Lliuya M. 19. Munoz A. 11. Arroyo A.
Substitutes
40. Alcedo F. 8. Ayovi W. 99. Charun J. (G) 5. Correa Flores C. A. 30. Guzman P. 20. Parodi J. 13. Perez Azambuya E. M. 28. Pinto O. 14. Salinas T.	29. Barrios I. (G) 6. Cavagna F. 9. de Jesus M. 18. Galvez S. 3. Ganoza M. 5. Huerto J. 7. Nunez J. 35. Paredes G. 14. Rasmussen M.
Coaches
Biaggio C.	Bustos C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Camacho D. ⚽, Caro D. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Vilca R. ⚽, Arias A. (A),
32', Serra P. 🟨,
39', Sen M. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Garro L. ↓, Paredes G. ↑,
46', Serra P. ↓, Ganoza M. ↑,
52', Ganoza M. 🟨,
62', Cantt J. ↓, de Jesus M. ↑,
64', Olivares J. ↓, Guzman P. ↑,
66', Duarte B. 🟨,
78', Camacho D. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
81', Arroyo A. ↓, Nunez J. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Nunez J. ⚽,
85', Vilca R. ↓, Ayovi W. ↑,
85', Vasquez C. ↓, Pinto O. ↑,
90+3', Herrera J. ↓, Perez Azambuya E. M. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 2.

Recent performances by Comerciantes Unidos have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cajamarca is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Comerciantes Unidos: F. Rojas (Elbow Injury) Villete A. (Injury)

There will not play in Cajamarca: Arce L. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Comerciantes Unidos: Ayovi W. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cajamarca: de Jesus M. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Comerciantes Unidos won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.1:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	18:19	-1	10
18	Cajamarca	10	0	2	8	11:24	-13	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
01.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Cusco - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Los Chankas	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Alianza Lima - Comerciantes Unidos	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Moquegua	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTLW
- UTC De Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
28.02.26	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	ADT Tarma - Cajamarca	2:2 ✺
13.02.26	Cajamarca - Cusco	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Moquegua - Cajamarca	2:3 ✺
30.01.26	Cajamarca - Atlético Grau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
25.01.26	Cajamarca - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1
Peruvian Liga 1
03.10.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Cajamarca	2:1
17.05.25	Cajamarca - Comerciantes Unidos	2:0
15.08.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Cajamarca	1:1
08.03.24	Cajamarca - Comerciantes Unidos	2:3
Peruvian Copa Bicentenario
12.06.21	Comerciantes Unidos - Cajamarca	0:1
23.06.19	Comerciantes Unidos - Cajamarca	0:1

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