Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Caldas		SC Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.4	4.2
	1.79	3.53	4.71
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.66)	3.47 ↓ (3.6)	4.46 ↓ (4.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
52.9%

Draw
26.5%

SC Lusitânia
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

25.5%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2%

24.7%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

SC Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SC Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-2%)

Caldas - SC Lusitânia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soares W. (G) 56. Nhayson 2. Yordy Marcelo 6. Militao T. 30. Monteiro E. 77. Lopes D. 5. Pepo 16. Lopez K. 20. Rafa Pinto 49. Castro T. 99. Balelo	1. Monteiro J. (G) 70. Mosquera D. 2. Derick 24. Edu 15. Breno T. 6. Serginho 17. Isabelinha 27. Legatheaux A. 80. Edu 11. Joca 77. Sidney C.
Substitutes
17. Barreiras G. 32. Cascao F. 8. Clemente D. 13. Dias R. 7. Farinha L. 10. Januario 25. Luis Paulo (G) 4. Santos D. 11. Velosa M.	32. Gunjo J. 23. Jefinho 5. Kaylan 30. Kipanda D. 72. Sa D. (G) 7. Watche T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Balelo ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Sidney C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 🟨,
60', 🟨,
62', Pepo 🟨,
63', Edu 🟨,
67', Legatheaux A. ↓, Kipanda D. ↑,
68', 🟨,
70', 2 - 1, Pepo ⚽,
75', Isabelinha ↓, Dario Miranda ↑,
76', Joca ↓, Jefinho ↑,
76', Balelo ↓, Velosa M. ↑,
79', Mosquera D. ↓, Watche T. ↑,
79', Edu ↓, Gunjo J. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Caldas is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caldas won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:4 (average 1.6:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Caldas won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0 (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.25	Académica Coimbra - Caldas	1:2 ✺
15.02.25	Caldas - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
25.01.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Caldas - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLTTT
- SC Lusitânia
Portuguese Liga 3
16.02.25	Oliveira Hospital - SC Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	SC Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:2 ✺
22.01.25	SC Lusitânia - Oliveira Hospital	0:0 ✺
19.01.25	União de Santarém - SC Lusitânia	1:0 ✺
15.01.25	Covilhã - SC Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
10.11.24	SC Lusitânia - Caldas	1:4
11.08.24	Caldas - SC Lusitânia	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
25.02.18	SC Lusitânia - Caldas	2:0
27.11.16	SC Lusitânia - Caldas	1:0
05.10.16	Caldas - SC Lusitânia	3:0

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