Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 9

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Campo Cha das Padeiras (Santarem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	União de Santarém		SC Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.5	3.5
	1.81	3.6	3.75
	1.81	3.3	3.8
	1.86	3.69	3.91	Watch
	1.82	3.38	3.93
	1.81	3.45	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.7)	3.49 ↓ (3.79)	3.77 ↓ (4.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União de Santarém
49.9%

Draw
26.1%

SC Lusitânia
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

24.2%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

23.9%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União de Santarém has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

SC Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SC Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

União de Santarém - SC Lusitânia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 21. Araujo P. 5. Ferreira K. 14. Simoes J. 11. Joao Ricardo 16. Grilo M. (C) 13. Apolinario R. 20. Ventura B. 81. Goncalves E. F. 9. Gustavo Franca 10. Madeira T.	72. Sa D. (G) 70. Mosquera D. 2. Derick 24. Edu 15. Breno T. 6. Serginho 53. Isma 42. Biai B. (C) 11. Joca 32. Gunjo J. 77. Sidney C.
Substitutes
19. Araujo R. 31. Balau D. 44. Doukoure H. 67. Fernandes R. 22. Hidalgo N. (G) 27. Juninho 26. Matheus Juliao 98. Midoes R. 8. Vieira A.	51. Almeida A. 52. Djebate I. 63. Drame Y. 80. Edu 17. Isabelinha 23. Jefinho 5. Kaylan 30. Kipanda D. 1. Monteiro J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Gustavo Franca ⚽,
42', Serginho 🟨,
45', Simoes J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Isma ↓, Kipanda D. ↑,
46', Biai B. ↓, Isabelinha ↑,
58', Madeira T. ↓, Balau D. ↑,
64', Breno T. ↓, Djebate I. ↑,
68', Gunjo J. ↓, Jefinho ↑,
70', Gustavo Franca ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
70', Ventura B. ↓, Juninho ↑,
80', 🟨,
80', Mosquera D. ↓, Edu ↑,
81', 🟨,
86', Grilo M. ↓, Doukoure H. ↑,
87', Goncalves E. F. ↓, Matheus Juliao ↑,
90+2', Apolinario R. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 0, Araujo R. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santarém won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Santarém will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Santarém won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:10 (average 1.3:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Santarém won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
12.04.25	Caldas - União de Santarém	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Oliveira Hospital - União de Santarém	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	União de Santarém - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	União de Santarém - Caldas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLTT
- SC Lusitânia
Portuguese Liga 3
16.04.25	Covilhã - SC Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	SC Lusitânia - Caldas	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Académica Coimbra - SC Lusitânia	4:2 ✺
22.03.25	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	SC Lusitânia - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
22.03.25	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	1:1
19.01.25	União de Santarém - SC Lusitânia	1:0
06.10.24	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	1:2
Campeonato de Portugal Promotion Group
25.05.24	União de Santarém - SC Lusitânia	1:1
27.04.24	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	3:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
17.03.24	União de Santarém - SC Lusitânia	2:1
03.12.23	SC Lusitânia - União de Santarém	3:1

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