Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 6

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: M&P Group 3G (Tonypandy)

Referee: Williams B. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play
Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Cambrian United		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
	3.60	3.25	1.85
	3.40	3.20	1.94
	3.75	3.57	1.93
	3.89	3.68	1.87	Watch
	3.70	3.50	1.91
	3.81	3.40	1.84
	3.60	3.30	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↓ (3.69)	3.41 ↓ (3.84)	1.9 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambrian United
24.9%

Draw
26.8%

Pen-y-Bont
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

24.3%

50.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

23.6%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambrian United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Pen-y-Bont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Cambrian United - Pen y Bont Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Absalom K. (G) 36. Allen J. 40. Bright H. 10. Eason L. 11. Edwards D. 4. Evans A. 5. Jones K. (C) 20. Karadogan J. 12. Strinati C. 7. Thomas F. 8. Woodford J.	1. Higgs D. (G) 6. Davies M. 19. Hill R. 11. Leko J. 4. Mehew T. 3. Melbourne M. 32. Shephard L. 33. Vaughan E. 9. Venables C. 23. Walker T. 7. Wood N.
Substitutes
9. Bonthron A. 16. Hillman D. 6. John A. 27. Jones S. (G) 23. Joseph J. 18. Lewis K. 14. Morris J.	21. Baker A. 10. Cann E. 17. Jefferies D. 55. Mashlan J. 25. Pennock A. (G) 14. Phillips I. 8. Pritchard O.
Coaches
Williams L.	Griffiths R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', Bright H. 🟨,
30', Venables C. 🟨,
30', Eason L. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Eason L. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Hill R. ⚽,
45', Evans A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Davies M. 🟨,
63', 2 - 1, Edwards D. ⚽,
63', Allen J. ↓, John A. ↑,
70', Venables C. ↓, Phillips I. ↑,
70', Leko J. ↓, Jefferies D. ↑,
70', Walker T. ↓, Cann E. ↑,
72', Karadogan J. ↓, Lewis K. ↑,
72', Evans A. ↓, Hillman D. ↑,
72', 🟨,
74', Eason L. 🟨,
77', 2 - 2, Phillips I. ⚽,
85', Hill R. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Pritchard O. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Conference League Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ))

Cambrian United has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pen-y-Bont is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Pen-y-Bont is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cambrian United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 1:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cambrian United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 1:2.7).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42% Cambrian United: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27
9	Cambrian United	12	5	3	4	21:32	-11	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambrian United
Welsh Cymru Premier
28.08.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Cambrian United	3:0 ✺
21.08.26	Haverfordwest County - Cambrian United	0:3 ✺
14.08.26	Cambrian United - Flint Town United	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Cambrian United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:1 ✺
31.07.26	Barry Town United - Cambrian United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWTL
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
28.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - Flint Town United	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - Llandudno	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Haverfordwest County - Pen-y-Bont	0:3 ✺
07.08.26	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2 ✺
02.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - The New Saints	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh FA Cup
21.11.25	Cambrian United - Pen-y-Bont	1:3
24.09.21	Cambrian United - Pen-y-Bont	1:3
Welsh Division 1
30.03.19	Cambrian United - Pen-y-Bont	1:2

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