Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 9

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Cyncoed Campus (Cardiff)

Referee: Lewis I. (Wal)


	Cardiff Metropolitan		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
	4.25	3.6	1.72
	4.4	3.84	1.74
	1.00	1.00	1.03	Watch
	4.41	3.62	1.73
	3.05	3.09	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.3)	3.03 ↓ (3.33)	1.63 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Metropolitan
23.6%

Draw
26.7%

Pen-y-Bont
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

27.6%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

27.4%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Metropolitan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Pen-y-Bont has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen y Bont Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Cardiff Metropolitan will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Pen-y-Bont will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pen-y-Bont: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pen-y-Bont will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Absalom K. (G) 16. Craven C. 7. Evans E. 10. Jones S. 8. Kabongo D. 14. Morris J. 19. Mwandwe L. 9. Rees L. 6. Reynolds R. 5. Richards S. 11. Roscrow A.	24. Matthews A. (G) 15. Clay J. 10. Crole J. 11. Daley N. 6. Davies M. 29. Green C. 4. Kircough G. 3. Owen K. (C) 9. Venables C. 5. Woodiwiss J. 7. Wood N.
Substitutes
2. Chubb M. 20. John H. 12. Lonergan R. 17. Payne J. 32. Rees O. 13. Seager S. (G) 21. Soady B.	1. Armstrong L. (G) 21. Baker A. 16. Borge B. 18. Jones J. 14. Phillips I. 72. Villacorta J. 17. Warlow O.
Coaches
Jenkins R.	Griffiths R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Crole J. ⚽,
22', 0 - 2, Crole J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Daley N. ↓, Phillips I. ↑,
57', 0 - 3, Phillips I. ⚽,
59', Morris J. ↓, Chubb M. ↑,
69', Roscrow A. 🟨,
71', Evans E. ↓, Payne J. ↑,
71', Kabongo D. ↓, John H. ↑,
79', 🟨,
79', 0 - 4, Crole J. ⚽,
80', Venables C. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
81', Wood N. ↓, Villacorta J. ↑,
81', Owen K. ↓, Borge B. ↑,
81', Reynolds R. ↓, Lonergan R. ↑,
83', Richards S. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff Metropolitan won 2.

Cardiff Metropolitan has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Pen-y-Bont has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pen-y-Bont may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Pen-y-Bont is considered a favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Cardiff Metropolitan won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:24. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff Metropolitan won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Metropolitan University FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
19.09.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - The New Saints	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1 ✺
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Cambrian United - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
06.09.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Colwyn Bay	1:4 ✺
30.08.25	Flint Town United - Cardiff Metropolitan	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLLL
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
20.09.25	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Pen-y-Bont - Flint Town United	5:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:3 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
06.09.25	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
14.03.25	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:0
24.01.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	2:1
31.12.24	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:2
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.24	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:1
Welsh Cymru Premier
15.10.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	1:1
26.12.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	0:3
29.08.23	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:0

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