Match Info

Capixaba - Round 9

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Mario Monteiro (Sumare) (Cachoeiro de Itapemirim)


	Capixaba SC		Noroeste

	1	X	2
	2.78	3	2.4
	2.91	2.76	2.5
	2.83	2.89	2.54	Watch
	2.9	2.7	2.5
	2.61	3.23	2.66
	2.83	2.75	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (2.97)	2.89 ↓ (3.25)	2.53 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Capixaba SC
32.4%

Draw
31.6%

Noroeste
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

28.2%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

26.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Capixaba SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Noroeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Capixaba SC than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Noroeste than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Noroeste could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Capixaba SC - Noroeste Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo Baioco (G) 3. Cafe 4. Carlos 2. Davi Mineiro 14. Feijao 6. Gilliard 9. Jeffin 7. Marquinhos 5. Oliveira H. 11. Pepe 16. Tavares G.	1. Giovani (G) 11. David Lima 10. Erlon 17. Guilherme Brito 3. Ismael 2. Kauan 6. Lucas Silva 9. Marcelinho 8. Matheus Recife 22. Romulo 5. Simao M.
Substitutes
21. Dembele 12. Esio (G) 18. Fernandes G. 20. Gian Carlos 15. Kaynan L. 8. Max 17. Montes J. 10. Samuel Andrade 13. Tibil	12. Alexandre Castro (G) 15. Antonio Junior 23. Cezario L. 13. Felipe Affonso 16. Gabriel Lisboa 20. Gilbert 7. Italo 21. Jorge Eduardo 14. Kauan 19. Koki 18. Ribeiro S. 4. Sorriso

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Feijao ↓, Max ↑,
62', Simao M. ↓, Gabriel Lisboa ↑,
62', Guilherme Brito ↓, Italo ↑,
65', 0 - 1, David Lima ⚽,
68', 🟨,
68', Carlos ↓, Kaynan L. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, David Lima ⚽,
71', 🟨,
77', Erlon ↓, Felipe Affonso ↑,
77', Marcelinho ↓, Ribeiro S. ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Capixaba 2)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Capixaba won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Capixaba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Noroeste could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Capixaba won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 0.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Capixaba won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Capixaba SC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
08.02.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Capixaba SC	0:1 ✺
04.02.26	Capixaba SC - Rio Branco AC ES	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Vitória ES - Capixaba SC	2:0 ✺
29.01.26	Capixaba SC - Vilavelhense	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Serra - Capixaba SC	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WLLWL
- Real Noroeste
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
08.02.26	Noroeste - Porto Vitória	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Noroeste - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:2 ✺
01.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Noroeste	0:1 ✺
29.01.26	Noroeste - Vitória ES	0:4 ✺
26.01.26	Vilavelhense - Noroeste	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
14.07.25	Noroeste - Capixaba SC	3:1
07.06.25	Noroeste - Capixaba SC	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
08.02.25	Capixaba SC - Noroeste	0:2
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
07.08.24	Capixaba SC - Noroeste	1:3
17.07.24	Noroeste - Capixaba SC	4:1
05.06.24	Noroeste - Capixaba SC	1:1

Capixaba SC - Noroeste: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide