The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Noroeste 28.9%
Draw 35.4%
Desportiva Ferroviaria 35.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.9%
28.1%
42.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.8%
27%
44.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for Noroeste have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
Desportiva Ferroviaria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Desportiva Ferroviaria might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noroeste than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desportiva Ferroviaria than the current prediction. (+8.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Desportiva Ferroviaria could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Noroeste - Desportiva Ferroviaria Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Giovani (G) 9. David Lima 10. Erlon 3. Gabriel J. 17. Guilherme Brito 7. Italo 5. Jaquison 2. Kauan 6. Lucas Silva 8. Matheus Recife 22. Romulo
32. Pedro Zanette (G) 23. Bahia 2. Jairo 3. Janelson 14. Jorge Mendes 13. Mariano (C) 5. Ruan 20. Tiago Moura 4. Vinicius Leandro 6. Wilian Simoes 11. Yan de Jesus
Substitutes
11. Alexandre 12. Alexandre Castro (G) 16. Antonio Junior 14. Diego 13. Felipe Affonso 18. Gabriel Lisboa 19. Gilbert 15. Ismael 21. Jorge Eduardo 23. Marcelinho 4. Murilo 20. Ribeiro S.
25. Cunha V. M. 10. Davi 19. Jhonatan Marino 16. Kevin 17. Lucas Tavares 8. Parmanhani K. 1. Rafael Mallmann (G) 7. Rodriguinho 22. Talles 18. Wesley Dias
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 2)
3', Jairo 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Erlon ⚽,
27', David Lima 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Tiago Moura (Penalty Awarded),
37', 1 - 2, Tiago Moura ⚽,
45', Jorge Mendes 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 2, Guilherme Brito ⚽,
45+5', 3 - 2, Italo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lucas Silva ↓, Antonio Junior ↑,
46', Jairo ↓, Kevin ↑,
49', Tiago Moura 🟨,
57', Jaquison 🟨,
58', David Lima ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
60', Kauan 🟨,
63', Jorge Mendes ↓, Romaneli ↑,
65', Ruan 🟨,
68', 🟨,
68', Guilherme Brito 🟨,
71', Murilo 🟨,
71', Marcelinho 🟨,
71', Marcelinho 🟥,
80', Kauan ↓, Felipe Affonso ↑,
80', Yan de Jesus ↓, Cunha V. M. ↑,
84', Ruan ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
90+6', 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Capixaba 2 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Noroeste won 1.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Ferroviaria may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Noroeste won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Noroeste won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.6:1).
Watch
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Giovani (G) 
Gabriel J. 
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