Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 2, Tigo Sports App
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 310
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter


	Carabobo		River Plate

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.25	2	Watch
	4.1	3.1	1.95
	3.95	2.98	2.02	Watch
	4.54	3.04	2.04
	4.18	3.02	2.07	Watch
	4.2	3	1.91
	4.31	3.25	1.95	Watch
	5.4	3.8	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.35 ↓ (5.4)	3.18 ↓ (3.8)	1.95 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carabobo
21.7%

Draw
29.7%

River Plate
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

24.9%

57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2%

24.5%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carabobo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and River Plate might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that River Plate could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	41.7%	41.7%

Carabobo - River Plate Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Carabobo will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). River Plate will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Bruera L. (C) 28. Bilbao J. 32. Neira E. 4. Aponte L. 21. Gonzalez A. 5. Castillo E. 26. Nunez M. 8. Perez J. 10. Orozco Y. 19. Martinez L. 7. Tortolero E.	41. Beltran S. (G) 16. Bustos F. 20. Pezzella G. (C) 31. Gonzalez F. 18. Vina M. 8. Meza M. 44. Silva L. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 10. Quintero J. 39. Lencina S. 35. Freitas J.
Substitutes
6. Bahachille A. 14. Berios J. 15. Cova M. 3. Fuentes J. 2. Guaramato M. 16. Lopez F. 30. Mendoza S. 23. Meza D. 18. Obando J. 17. Oliveros F. 9. Riasco J. 12. Roa K. (G)	22. Castano K. 33. Centurion E. (G) 11. Colidio F. 36. Gimenez U. 42. Jaroszewicz F. (G) 28. Martinez Quarta L. 24. Meza J. 19. Paez K. 25. Pereyra L. 32. Ruberto A. 7. Salas M. 38. Subiabre I.
Coaches
Farias D.	Coudet E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Neira E. 🟨,
26', Quintero J. (Penalty Awarded),
37', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
45', Castillo E. 🟨,
45+4', Castillo E. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Tortolero E. ↓, Cova M. ↑,
46', Orozco Y. ↓, Fuentes J. ↑,
49', Pezzella G. 🟨,
55', Silva L. 🟨,
59', 0 - 1, Meza M. ⚽, Quintero J. (A),
60', Lencina S. ↓, Salas M. ↑,
60', Meza M. ↓, Colidio F. ↑,
72', Bilbao J. ↓, Berios J. ↑,
72', Freitas J. ↓, Meza J. ↑,
73', Vina M. 🟨,
74', Meza J. 🟨,
77', 1 - 1, Nunez M. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Quintero J. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
79', Silva L. ↓, Pereyra L. ↑,
82', Bruera L. 🟨,
84', Centurion E. 🟨,
86', Beltran S. 🟥,
90+6', 1 - 2, Salas M. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, River Plate has had a series of home games.

In this match, River Plate is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carabobo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carabobo FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
03.05.26	Carabobo - Metropolitanos	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Carabobo - Blooming	2:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
25.04.26	Deportivo Táchira - Carabobo	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Carabobo - Academia Anzoátegui	6:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	River Plate - Carabobo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TWLWL
- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.26	River Plate - Atlético Tucumán	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - River Plate	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.04.26	River Plate - Aldosivi	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	River Plate - Boca Juniors	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	River Plate - Carabobo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	River Plate - Carabobo	1:0

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