Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 29 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter


	Caracas		Deportes Iquique

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	5.25	Watch
	1.77	3.6	4.33
	1.62	4	5	Watch
	1.63	4.01	5.22
	1.66	4	5.06	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.7	Watch
	1.67	3.8	5.25	Watch
	1.62	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.06)	3.81 ↑ (3.47)	4.85 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caracas
55.7%

Draw
24.8%

Deportes Iquique
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

27.1%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

26%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caracas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Caracas's performance.

Deportes Iquique has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Iquique might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Caracas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Iquique than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Iquique could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	35.7%	14.3%

Caracas - Deportes Iquique Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Caracas will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Deportes Iquique will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caracas: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Iquique (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Caracas (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Caracas (votes: 1 - 25%). Deportes Iquique (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Benitez F. (G) 72. Rito E. 2. La Mantia F. (C) 4. Rodriguez B. 13. Yendis J. 5. Vegas M. 14. Echenique E. 15. Heraldez L. 10. Covea M. 31. Hernandez J. 7. Tegues D.	1. Reyes M. (G) 7. Gomez J. 15. Rodriguez C. 13. Jorquera M. 4. Rojas D. 30. Blazquez M. (C) 5. Fuentes C. 21. Fernandez C. D. N. 23. Hoyos E. 20. Orellana D. 50. Marcotti L.
Substitutes
27. Edet B. 22. Figueroa A. 30. Herrera A. 24. Jimenez N. 25. Pena L. 17. Reinoso L. 21. Rodriguez V. 23. Vegas J. (G)	2. Arias D. 24. Barrera B. 28. Binimelis H. (G) 3. Ferreyra T. 17. Gonzalez C. 27. Henriquez A. 16. Soto B. 25. Valenzuela R.
Coaches
Aristeguieta F.	Diaz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Covea M. ⚽, Echenique E. (A),
28', Hernandez J. 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, Tegues D. ⚽, Echenique E. (A),
35', Tegues D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Marcotti L. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
46', Jorquera M. ↓, Barrera B. ↑,
54', 2 - 1, Gonzalez C. ⚽,
60', Tegues D. ↓, Reinoso L. ↑,
65', Gomez J. ↓, Valenzuela R. ↑,
70', Heraldez L. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
70', Vegas M. ↓, Figueroa A. ↑,
73', Rito E. 🟥,
76', Rodriguez B. ↓, Edet B. ↑,
77', Hernandez J. ↓, Jimenez N. ↑,
82', Fuentes C. ↓, Henriquez A. ↑,
87', Orellana D. ↓, Arias D. ↑,
90+7', Gonzalez C. 🟥,

Preview

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Deportes Iquique may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Caracas is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Caracas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Caracas FC
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Caracas	3:1 ✺
08.05.25	Cienciano - Caracas	3:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
27.04.25	Universidad Central - Caracas	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Caracas - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
18.04.25	Caracas - Monagas	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 LLWTL
- Deportes Iquique
Chilean Primera Division
25.05.25	Deportes Iquique - Unión La Calera	0:1 ✺
19.05.25	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Iquique	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.25	Cienciano - Deportes Iquique	4:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.05.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Iquique	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.25	Deportes Iquique - Atlético Mineiro	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Deportes Iquique - Caracas	1:2

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