Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 5 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Cienciano		Caracas

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.75	8	Watch
	1.44	4.33	7
	1.36	4.75	8	Watch
	1.36	4.84	9.02
	1.39	4.66	8.76	Watch
	1.4	4	7.5	Watch
	1.37	4.65	8.5	Watch
	1.36	4.75	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.63)	4.59 ↑ (3.81)	8.1 ↑ (5.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cienciano
67.9%

Draw
20.5%

Caracas
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

24.8%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

23.9%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cienciano's performance.

Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caracas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cienciano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Cienciano - Caracas Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cienciano will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cienciano will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Barrios I. (G) 7. Estrada J. 4. Amondarain M. 70. Valoyes J. 27. Ortiz J. 14. Torrejon C. (C) 5. Arias Fierro S. D. 25. Gentile G. 9. Romagnoli J. 10. Cueva C. 21. Garces C.	12. Benitez F. (G) 72. Rito E. 2. La Mantia F. 19. Mago L. 13. Yendis J. 5. Vegas M. 21. Rodriguez V. (C) 14. Echenique E. 15. Heraldez L. 31. Hernandez J. 9. De Santis J.
Substitutes
19. Ascues A. 20. Benites Vargas L. E. 24. Bolado J. (G) 28. Cavero S. 6. Galeano L. 8. Gonzalez A. 16. Ibanez P. 11. La Torre D. 22. Neira C. 17. Noronha O. 26. Palomino R. 55. Ramua A.	33. Correa W. 27. Edet B. 24. Jimenez N. 32. Morigi M. 17. Reinoso L. 3. Rivillo D. 4. Rodriguez B. 29. Rondon J. 7. Tegues D. 23. Vegas J. (G)
Coaches
Desio C.	Aristeguieta F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', De Santis J. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Gentile G. ⚽,
21', Mago L. ↓, Edet B. ↑,
22', Arias Fierro S. D. 🟨,
30', Garces C. ↓, Noronha O. ↑,
34', 1 - 1, Hernandez J. ⚽,
45', Estrada J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
67', 2 - 1, Valoyes J. ⚽, Arias Fierro S. D. (A),
73', Hernandez J. ↓, Jimenez N. ↑,
74', Heraldez L. ↓, Correa W. ↑,
74', Cueva C. ↓, Benites Vargas L. E. ↑,
75', Romagnoli J. ↓, Palomino R. ↑,
75', Gentile G. ↓, La Torre D. ↑,
81', Ortiz J. ↓, Cavero S. ↑,
81', Jimenez N. 🟨,
83', 3 - 1, Noronha O. ⚽, Amondarain M. (A),
85', Rodriguez V. ↓, Reinoso L. ↑,
85', Vegas M. ↓, Rondon J. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Cienciano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cienciano is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cienciano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
02.05.25	Alianza Lima - Cienciano	0:1 ✺
28.04.25	Cienciano - Sport Huancayo	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Deportes Iquique - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.25	Sport Boys - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Cienciano - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.2 WWTTL
- Caracas FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
27.04.25	Universidad Central - Caracas	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Caracas - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
18.04.25	Caracas - Monagas	1:4 ✺
13.04.25	Zamora - Caracas	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Caracas - Cienciano	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Caracas - Cienciano	2:2

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