Match Info

National League - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carlisle United		Southend United

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	2.8
	2.15	3.40	2.70
	2.15	3.45	2.9	Watch
	2.19	3.74	3.12
	2.29	3.7	2.75	Watch
	2.16	3.7	3
	2.21	3.7	2.88	Watch
	2.18	3.55	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.33)	3.61 (3.61)	2.89 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
42.3%

Draw
25.7%

Southend United
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

25.7%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

25.3%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Southend United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southend United than the current prediction. (+3%)

Carlisle United - Southend United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Desbois A. (G) 7. Ajiboye D. 6. Azeez M. 4. Bunker H. 17. Duru L. 18. Ellis J. 5. Feeney M. (C) 30. Jenks T. 9. Kelly G. 15. Nicholson B. 22. Williams J.	1. Duncan J. (G) 9. Cardwell H. 19. Chambers-Parillon L. 28. Coker O. (C) 27. Colclough R. 2. Daley-Campbell V. 6. Goodliffe B. 4. Hartigan A. 3. McAdam K. 8. Oldaker D. 5. Oyebade R.
Substitutes
12. Galvin R. 3. Harper C. 10. Linney R. 11. Luamba J. 16. Mair A. (G) 19. Obiero M. 20. Wearne S.	10. Austin S. 20. Cox D. 17. Massiah-Edwards Z. 14. Omochere P. 23. Popoola J. 13. Sims J. (G) 16. Taylor H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Kelly G. ⚽, Ajiboye D. (A),
7', McAdam K. 🟨,
43', Daley-Campbell V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Coker O. ↓, Massiah-Edwards Z. ↑,
53', Cardwell H. 🟨,
58', Cardwell H. ↓, Omochere P. ↑,
58', Colclough R. ↓, Popoola J. ↑,
61', Williams J. ↓, Luamba J. ↑,
62', Duru L. 🟨,
65', Ajiboye D. ↓, Obiero M. ↑,
66', Jenks T. ↓, Wearne S. ↑,
70', Oldaker D. ↓, Austin S. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Chambers-Parillon L. ⚽, Omochere P. (A),
87', Duru L. ↓, Linney R. ↑,
87', Bunker H. ↓, Galvin R. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, McAdam K. ⚽,
90+3', Chambers-Parillon L. ↓, Taylor H. ↑,
90+4', Omochere P. 🟨,
90+7', 2 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 3.

In recent matches, Carlisle has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Southend is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Southend	13	8	3	2	31:19	12	27
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23:20	3	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
05.09.26	Boreham Wood - Carlisle United	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Carlisle United - Scunthorpe United	4:2 ✺
28.08.26	Wealdstone - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Carlisle United - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
15.08.26	Yeovil Town - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWTWT
- Southend United
English National League
05.09.26	Southend United - Yeovil Town	3:2 ✺
English National League North
31.08.26	Woking - Southend United	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Southend United - Kidderminster Harriers	1:3 ✺
English National League
22.08.26	Solihull Moors - Southend United	1:3 ✺
15.08.26	Southend United - Scunthorpe United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
07.03.26	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:2
08.11.25	Southend United - Carlisle United	1:2
English League Two
03.04.21	Southend United - Carlisle United	0:2
19.09.20	Carlisle United - Southend United	2:0
28.02.15	Southend United - Carlisle United	2:0
23.08.14	Carlisle United - Southend United	1:1

Carlisle United - Southend United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide