Match Info

SPAIN: Copa del Rey - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova (Cartagena)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Saudi-arabia	Shahid VIP
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	M+ LaLiga TV 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter
World	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Cartagena		Leganés

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.1	2	Watch
	3.9	3.2	2.05
	4	3.3	2.05	Watch
	4.36	3.28	1.84	Watch
	3.8	3	2.05	Watch
	3.91	3.24	2.07	Watch
	4	3.3	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↓ (4.46)	3.2 ↓ (3.29)	2.02 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cartagena
23.5%

Draw
29.5%

Leganés
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

28.6%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

29.9%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leganés could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	22.2%	66.7%

Cartagena - Leganés Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cartagena will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Leganés will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leganés: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cunat P. (G) 2. Moreno J. 4. Alcala P. (C) 22. Olivas K. 3. Rios Reina J. 20. Izquierdo J. 17. Andy 6. Mini 8. Munoz L. 10. Escriche D. 9. Ortuno A.	1. Soriano J. (G) 12. Rosier V. 6. Gonzalez S. (C) 3. Saenz J. 22. Nastasic M. 11. Cruz J. 10. Raba D. 14. Brasanac D. 8. Cisse S. 23. Munir El Haddadi 19. Garcia D.
Substitutes
34. Gonzalez H. 28. Hernandez J. 30. Reyes J. (G) 37. Roman P. 27. Sanchez Alcaraz C. 24. Sipcic N. 7. Valles G. 12. Vukcevic A.	2. Altimira A. 28. Bachiller I. 24. Chicco J. 9. de la Fuente M. 13. Dmitrovic M. (G) 27. Garcia N. 18. Haller S. 20. Hernandez J. 21. Lopez R. 17. Neyou Y. 4. Porozo J.
Coaches
Jandro	Jimenez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Munoz L. ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Munir El Haddadi ⚽,
42', Rosier V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 1 - 2, Raba D. ⚽,
60', Ortuno A. ↓, Valles G. ↑,
61', Garcia D. ↓, Neyou Y. ↑,
61', Munir El Haddadi ↓, de la Fuente M. ↑,
72', Andy ↓, Roman P. ↑,
72', Rios Reina J. ↓, Gonzalez H. ↑,
76', Raba D. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
83', Mini ↓, Sanchez Alcaraz C. ↑,
90+2', Cruz J. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cartagena won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Cartagena could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Leganés is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Cartagena won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:11 (average 0.8:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Cartagena won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:6 (average 0.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cartagena
Spanish LaLiga2
20.12.24	Cartagena - Albacete Balompié	0:0 ✺
17.12.24	Granada - Cartagena	4:1 ✺
14.12.24	Castellón - Cartagena	4:1 ✺
09.12.24	Cartagena - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.12.24	FC Andorra - Cartagena	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 TLLWW
- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga
22.12.24	Leganés - Villarreal	2:5 ✺
15.12.24	Barcelona - Leganés	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Leganés - Real Sociedad	0:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.24	Estepona - Leganés	2:3 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
30.11.24	Deportivo Alavés - Leganés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36.7 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
30.03.24	Leganés - Cartagena	0:0
05.11.23	Cartagena - Leganés	0:3
01.04.23	Leganés - Cartagena	1:3
09.10.22	Cartagena - Leganés	1:2
08.05.22	Cartagena - Leganés	0:0
02.11.21	Leganés - Cartagena	1:1
26.02.21	Cartagena - Leganés	1:0

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