Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 38

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova (Cartagena)

Referee: Muniz C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, GolStadium, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cartagena		Racing Santander

	1	X	2
	7	5.25	1.38	Watch
	6.75	4.75	1.38
	6.2	4.7	1.43	Watch
	6.61	4.88	1.47
	6.44	4.78	1.46	Watch
	6.6	4.75	1.45	Watch
	6.2	4.7	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.54 ↑ (5.22)	4.83 ↑ (3.96)	1.43 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cartagena
14.4%

Draw
19.5%

Racing Santander
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

23.9%

58.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.5%

23.1%

60.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cartagena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Racing Santander has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Racing Santander's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Santander than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Racing Santander, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	7.7%	69.2%

Cartagena - Racing Santander Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Cartagena will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Racing will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Racing: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Racing Santander will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cunat P. (G) 19. Aguirregabiria M. 4. Alcala P. (C) 2. Moreno J. 20. Nacho 5. Ndiaye Dione A. 6. Mini 38. Nunez R. 16. Machin J. 32. Luna D. 14. Millan A.	13. Ezkieta J. (G) 17. Michelin C. 2. Mantilla A. 5. Castro J. 40. Garcia M. 12. Gueye M. 21. Vencedor U. 11. Martin A. 22. Rodriguez P. 10. Vicente I. 19. Karrikaburu J.
Substitutes
17. Andy 11. Clemente O. 21. Delmas J. 33. El Jebari S. 10. Escriche D. 40. Fuidias T. (G) 28. Hernandez J. 9. Ortuno A. 30. Reyes J. (G) 36. Rubio L. N. 24. Sipcic N. 12. Vukcevic A.	8. Aldasoro A. 9. Arana J. 3. Garcia S. 16. Gonzalez R. 29. Jeremy Arevalo 7. Junior L. 18. Manu 23. Meseguer Cavas V. A. 24. Montero J. 1. Parera P. M. (G) 15. Sangalli M. 14. Zenitagoia E.
Coaches
Fernandez G.	Lopez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Moreno J. 🟨,
27', Nacho 🟨,
30', Garcia M. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Luna D. ⚽, Nacho (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodriguez P. ↓, Arana J. ↑,
46', Gueye M. ↓, Meseguer Cavas V. A. ↑,
59', Nunez R. ↓, El Jebari S. ↑,
68', Millan A. ↓, Escriche D. ↑,
68', Machin J. ↓, Clemente O. ↑,
68', Garcia M. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
69', Martin A. 🟨,
76', Vencedor U. ↓, Jeremy Arevalo ↑,
83', Luna D. ↓, Ortuno A. ↑,
83', Ndiaye Dione A. ↓, Andy ↑,
88', Karrikaburu J. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Cartagena is Relegated to

Cartagena has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Racing is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Racing may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Racing is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Cartagena: Munoz L. (Knee Injury) Olivas K. (Injury) Valles G. (Injury)

There will not play in Racing: Sainz-Maza I. (Knee Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cartagena won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cartagena won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cartagena
Spanish LaLiga2
26.04.25	Albacete Balompié - Cartagena	3:1 ✺
20.04.25	Cartagena - Granada	2:3 ✺
13.04.25	Almería - Cartagena	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Cartagena - Eldense	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Cartagena - Castellón	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLLT
- Racing Santander
Spanish LaLiga2
27.04.25	Racing Santander - Deportivo A Coruña	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Huesca - Racing Santander	1:3 ✺
13.04.25	Racing Santander - Castellón	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Levante - Racing Santander	3:1 ✺
29.03.25	Racing Santander - Zaragoza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
30.09.24	Racing Santander - Cartagena	1:2
21.01.24	Racing Santander - Cartagena	0:2
14.10.23	Cartagena - Racing Santander	2:3
28.05.23	Racing Santander - Cartagena	3:1
17.12.22	Cartagena - Racing Santander	0:3

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