Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/32-finals

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Colombia	Win play
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	America TV GO
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Spain	M+ LaLiga
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Inter, Meridiano


	Cartagena		Valencia

	1	X	2
	6	3.8	1.53	Watch
	5.4	3.7	1.55
	5.73	3.85	1.58
	5.55	3.97	1.57	Watch
	5.75	3.6	1.57	Watch
	6.4	3.85	1.57	Watch
	5.75	4	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.8 ↓ (6.97)	3.82 ↓ (4.16)	1.56 ↑ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cartagena
16%

Draw
24.3%

Valencia
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.1%

22%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.8%

21.4%

66.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Valencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Valencia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valencia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	0%	92.3%

Cartagena - Valencia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Valencia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Cartagena (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Valencia will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cartagena (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Valencia (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez I. (G) 18. Perejon D. 6. Fidalgo A. 5. Baz I. 3. Jimenez N. 7. Calderon C. 14. Alcaniz E. 23. Nacho 21. Chuca 16. Martin A. 9. Ortuno A. (C)	1. Dimitrievski S. (G) 20. Foulquier D. (C) 26. Rubo 24. Comert E. 21. Vazquez J. 17. Ramazani L. 22. Santamaria B. 23. Ugrinic F. 7. Danjuma A. 15. Beltran L. 19. Raba D.
Substitutes
19. Chiki 8. De Blasis P. 13. Garcia L. (G) 20. Gomez D. 2. Jurado M. 10. Larrea P. 22. Martinez N. 11. Redondo L. 30. Reyes J. (G) 27. Rubio L. N. 17. Sanchez K.	10. Almeida A. 3. Copete J. 12. Correia T. 9. Duro H. 14. Gaya J. 8. Guerra J. 16. Lopez D. 27. Otorbi D. 18. Pepelu 11. Rioja L. 13. Rivero C. (G)
Coaches
Rey J.	Corberan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Chuca 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Ortuno A. ⚽, Martin A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Ramazani L. ↓, Duro H. ↑,
48', Santamaria B. 🟨,
59', Calderon C. ↓, Redondo L. ↑,
59', Martin A. ↓, Gomez D. ↑,
64', Foulquier D. ↓, Correia T. ↑,
64', Danjuma A. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
64', Raba D. ↓, Rioja L. ↑,
69', Ortuno A. ↓, De Blasis P. ↑,
69', Chuca ↓, Sanchez K. ↑,
73', Ugrinic F. ↓, Guerra J. ↑,
75', De Blasis P. 🟨,
80', 1 - 1, Beltran L. ⚽,
80', Jimenez N. ↓, Martinez N. ↑,
85', Nacho 🟨,
90+1', Lopez D. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
91', Alcaniz E. ↓, Chiki ↑,
102', Beltran L. ↓, Almeida A. ↑,
112', Santamaria B. 🟨,
118', Guerra J. 🟨,
119', Sanchez K. (Penalty Awarded),
120+1', 1 - 2, Vazquez J. ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cartagena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Valencia is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cartagena won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cartagena won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cartagena
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.11.25	Betis B - Cartagena	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Cartagena - Eldense	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	CE Europa - Cartagena	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Teruel - Cartagena	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Cartagena - Villarreal B	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTLWL
- CF Valencia
Spanish LaLiga
01.12.25	Rayo Vallecano - Valencia	1:1 ✺
21.11.25	Valencia - Levante	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Valencia - Betis	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Real Madrid - Valencia	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Maracena - Valencia	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
07.01.24	Cartagena - Valencia	1:2 ET
05.01.22	Cartagena - Valencia	1:2
Club Friendly
24.07.21	Valencia - Cartagena	3:2

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