Match Info

LaLiga - Round 14

Date: 1 December 2025, Monday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Alberola J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bangladesh	Begin
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 2, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Rayo Vallecano		Valencia

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.12	3.2	3.7	Watch
	2.12	3.27	4.1
	1.76	3.81	4.51	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.8
	2.16	3.3	4.01	Watch
	2.1	3.1	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.76)	3.29 ↓ (3.81)	3.97 ↓ (4.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
46.6%

Draw
29.2%

Valencia
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

24.9%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

24.4%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rayo Vallecano's form might have worsened.

Valencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rayo Vallecano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.2%	19.3%	10.5%

Rayo Vallecano - Valencia Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 40 - 71.4%). Valencia will win (votes: 6 - 10.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 17.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 59.6% – 83.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 16 - 69.6%). Valencia (votes: 3 - 13%). Tie (votes: 4 - 17.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Valencia (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Valencia (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 16 - 64%). Valencia (votes: 5 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 32. Mendy N. 3. Chavarria P. 17. Lopez U. 23. Valentin O. (C) 15. Gumbau G. 21. Perez F. 19. de Frutos J. 18. Garcia A.	25. Agirrezabala J. (G) 12. Correia T. 5. Tarrega C. 3. Copete J. 14. Gaya J. (C) 8. Guerra J. 18. Pepelu 11. Rioja L. 10. Almeida A. 16. Lopez D. 9. Duro H.
Substitutes
9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 28. Becerra S. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 5. Luiz Felipe 40. Molina A. (G) 22. Pacha 33. Vertrouwd J.	15. Beltran L. 24. Comert E. 7. Danjuma A. 1. Dimitrievski S. (G) 20. Foulquier D. 27. Otorbi D. 19. Raba D. 13. Rivero C. (G) 26. Rubo 22. Santamaria B. 23. Ugrinic F. 21. Vazquez J.
Coaches
Perez I.	Corberan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Mendy N. ⚽, Gumbau G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Guerra J. ↓, Danjuma A. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Lopez D. ⚽,
69', Lopez U. ↓, Alemao ↑,
69', Perez F. ↓, Pacha ↑,
71', Correia T. 🟨,
74', Rioja L. ↓, Ugrinic F. ↑,
74', Duro H. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
83', de Frutos J. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
83', Mendy N. ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
90+2', Pepelu ↓, Santamaria B. ↑,
90+2', Lopez D. ↓, Raba D. ↑,
90+3', Garcia A. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
90+6', Alemao 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Valencia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Rayo Vallecano might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Ciss P. (Red Card) Diaz P. (Injury) Mendez D. (Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury) Palazon I. (Yellow Cards) Trejo O. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Valencia: Comert E. (Illness) Diakhaby M. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Nteka R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Valencia: Ramazani L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 5 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 0.9:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Slovan Bratislava - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
23.11.25	Real Oviedo - Rayo Vallecano	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Real Madrid	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznań	3:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTTWL
- CF Valencia
Spanish LaLiga
21.11.25	Valencia - Levante	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Valencia - Betis	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Real Madrid - Valencia	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Maracena - Valencia	0:5 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.10.25	Valencia - Villarreal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
19.04.25	Rayo Vallecano - Valencia	1:1
07.12.24	Valencia - Rayo Vallecano	0:1
12.05.24	Valencia - Rayo Vallecano	0:0
19.12.23	Rayo Vallecano - Valencia	0:1
03.04.23	Valencia - Rayo Vallecano	1:1
10.09.22	Rayo Vallecano - Valencia	2:1
11.04.22	Rayo Vallecano - Valencia	1:1

Upcoming Matches