Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 6

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Israel	Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Casa Pia		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.1	2.1	Watch
	3.55	3.2	2.08	Watch
	3.78	3.24	2.19
	3.52	3.10	2.19	Watch
	3.83	3.17	2.2	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (3.6)	3.18 ↓ (3.25)	2.15 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
25.9%

Draw
29.9%

Famalicão
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

29%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	15.4%	61.5%

Casa Pia - Famalicão Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Famalicão will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Famalicão (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Famalicão will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sequeira P. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 42. Perez S. 74. Nhaga R. 12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano 21. Morais T.	25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 16. De Haas J. 3. Realpe L. 28. Pedro Bondo 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.
Substitutes
22. Azevedo D. (G) 5. Conte A. 27. Kaique Rocha 14. Miguel Sousa 24. Mohamed I. 13. Osundina K. 19. Prieto K. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 9. Svensson M.	9. Abubakar U. 55. Ba I. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 8. Pena M. 80. Santos P. 21. Zabiri Y. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Santana A.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Sousa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 0 - 1, Realpe L. ⚽, Gil Dias (A),
56', Realpe L. 🟨,
59', Morais T. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
59', Benaissa-Yahia F. ↓, Conte A. ↑,
71', Gil Dias ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
77', Cassiano ↓, Svensson M. ↑,
77', Larrazabal G. ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
87', De Haas J. 🟨,
88', 1 - 1, Livolant J. (Pen),
88', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
88', De Amorim M. ↓, Mamageishvili O. ↑,
90+2', Nhaga R. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.

In recent matches, Casa Pia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Famalicão is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Casa Pia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Famalicão could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Kiki (Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Nsona K. (Injury) Oukili Y. (Injury)

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Rafa Soares (Injury) Rochinha (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Casa Pia - Nacional	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
15.08.25	AVS - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLLWL
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
13.09.25	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	AVS - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Tondela - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	Famalicão - Santa Clara	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.05.25	Famalicão - Casa Pia	2:1
05.01.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1
17.05.24	Famalicão - Casa Pia	1:2
13.01.24	Casa Pia - Famalicão	0:2
13.03.23	Famalicão - Casa Pia	1:0
18.09.22	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:0

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