Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 15

Date: 7 December 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Castalia (Castellón de la Plana)


	Castellón		Numancia

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.4	5.75
	1.61	3.4	5
	1.6	3.4	5.1
	1.62	3.4	5
	1.67	3.49	5.65
	1.65	3.3	5.25
	1.59	3.58	5.4
	2.01	3.15	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2.01)	3.39 ↑ (3)	5.07 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castellón
54.9%

Draw
27%

Numancia
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

30.4%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

30%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castellón's performance.

Numancia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Numancia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castellón that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Numancia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	0%	6.2%

Castellón - Numancia Predictions

Users Predictions: Castellón will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 and 14).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Castellón could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Castellón is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Castellón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.12.22	SD Logroñés - Castellón	2:1 ✺
26.11.22	Castellón - Real Murcia	1:0 ✺
19.11.22	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Castellón	2:1 ✺
06.11.22	Castellón - Intercity	1:0 ✺
30.10.22	Eldense - Castellón	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLWT
- CD Numancia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
04.12.22	Numancia - Real Unión de Irun	0:2 ✺
26.11.22	Barcelona B - Numancia	1:2 ✺
20.11.22	Numancia - Sabadell	3:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.11.22	San Juan - Numancia	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
06.11.22	Atlético Baleares - Numancia	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWTWL

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