Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Castellanzese		Breno

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.28	3.05	2.92
	2.29	3.14	2.96	Watch
	2.27	3.06	3
	2.25	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.42)	3.07 ↓ (3.23)	2.94 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castellanzese
39.7%

Draw
29.5%

Breno
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

28.1%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

27.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castellanzese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Breno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellanzese than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Breno than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Castellanzese - Breno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
61', 0 - 1, Castelli M. ⚽,
90+5', 0 - 2, Bitihene B. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 12).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castellanzese won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Castellanzese won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Castellanzese - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.52%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Castellanzese
Italian Serie D - Group B
21.12.25	Castellanzese - Virtus CiseranoBergamo	3:1 ✺
14.12.25	Milan Futuro - Castellanzese	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Castellanzese - Chievo	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Leon - Castellanzese	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Castellanzese - Casatese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLWTL
- Breno Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
21.12.25	Villa Valle - Breno	4:0 ✺
14.12.25	Breno - Varesina	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Brusaporto - Breno	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Breno - Real Calepina	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Sondrio - Breno	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
07.09.25	Breno - Castellanzese	0:0
23.03.25	Breno - Castellanzese	1:1
10.11.24	Castellanzese - Breno	2:2
10.04.22	Castellanzese - Breno	1:1
28.11.21	Breno - Castellanzese	1:1

Castellanzese - Breno: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide