Match Info

BRAZIL: GAUCHO - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Goulart R. (Bra)


	Caxias		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	5	3.25	1.8	Watch
	4.5	3.25	1.77
	4.75	3.25	1.78	Watch
	4.93	3.37	1.74
	4.94	3.37	1.75
	4.55	3.44	1.76	Watch
	4.7	3.15	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.77 ↓ (5)	3.3 ↑ (3.1)	1.77 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
19.4%

Draw
28.1%

Grêmio
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

29.9%

51.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

25.9%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Caxias - Grêmio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabian Volpi (G) 9. Alvaro 5. Barba (C) 4. Cezar 3. Denilson 6. Dudu Mandai 8. Elyeser 7. Emerson Martins 2. Marcelo 10. Tomas Bastos 11. Vitor Feijao	31. Caique (G) 19. Costa D. 10. Cristaldo F. 39. Gustavo Nunes 18. Joao Pedro 26. Mayk 21. Pavon C. 3. Pedro Geromel (C) 23. Pepe 20. Villasanti M. 4. Walter Kannemann
Substitutes
13. Alisson 21. Augusto Galvan 20. David Lustosa 14. Dirceu 17. Geilson 18. Joel Vinicius 22. Matheus Rocha 15. Pedro Cuiaba 16. Peu 19. Robinho 23. Vinicius 12. Ze Carlos (G)	77. Andre Henrique 17. Dodi 37. Du Queiroz 13. Everton Galdino 2. Fabio 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 11. Joao Pedro 36. Nata 14. Nathan 32. Nathan Fernandes 5. Rodrigo Ely 51. Wesley Costa
Coaches
Fuchs A.	Renato Gaucho

Preview

1st leg.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Caxias won 1.

Caxias in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Grêmio is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Grêmio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Grêmio is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Caxias won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 19-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Caxias won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Copa do Brasil
12.03.24	Caxias - Bahia	2:3 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.24	Caxias - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:0 ✺
02.03.24	Novo Hamburgo - Caxias	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.02.24	Portuguesa Santista - Caxias	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
24.02.24	Caxias - Avenida	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWWW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
10.03.24	Grêmio - Brasil de Pelotas	2:0 ✺
02.03.24	Grêmio - Guarany de Bagé	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Recopa Gaucho
28.02.24	São Luiz - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
25.02.24	Internacional RS - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
17.02.24	Grêmio - Santa Cruz-RS	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
20.01.24	Caxias - Grêmio	2:1
08.04.23	Grêmio - Caxias	1:0
01.04.23	Caxias - Grêmio	1:1
21.01.23	Caxias - Grêmio	1:2
26.01.22	Grêmio - Caxias	2:1
09.05.21	Grêmio - Caxias	2:0
02.05.21	Caxias - Grêmio	1:2

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