Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 11

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)


	Caxias		Maringá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.10	3.10
	2.00	3.20	3.40	Watch
	2.31	3.15	3.24
	2.13	3.33	3.26	Watch
	2.15	2.90	3.10
	2.22	2.95	3.20	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (2.04)	3.11 ↑ (3.1)	3.22 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
42.4%

Draw
29.3%

Maringá
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

29%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

28.8%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Caxias - Maringá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Busatto G. (G) 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 5. Grigor 3. Ianson 8. Matheus Nunes 4. Mauricio Ribeiro (C) 10. Ravanelli 6. Roberto 9. Salatiel 11. Vitor Feijao	25. Neto (G) 99. Caique Calito 7. Edison Negueba 3. Gabriel Santos 2. Gabriel Souza 9. Giovane Gomez 18. Jhow Alecxander 28. Lucas Bonifacio 23. Paulinho 21. Ronald Camarao 4. Wendel Lomar (C)
Substitutes
20. Felipe Rangel 17. Gaspar 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 22. Joao Lucas 23. Luis Miguel 14. Mancha 12. Marcelo (G) 21. Marcelo Freitas 15. Ronei 16. Victor Sa 18. Vitor Gabriel 13. Windson	8. Adeilson 20. Bruno Cheron 11. Danielzinho 10. Guilherme Pira 17. Iago Santana 5. Kelvi Gomes 13. Keven 77. Rafinha 29. Rai Natalino 6. Thiago Rosa
Coaches
Marcelo Cabo	Moises Egert

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Lucas Bonifacio 🟨,
15', Moises Egert 🟨,
16', Matheus Nunes 🟨,
27', Adeilson 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Salatiel ⚽,
34', Salatiel 🟨,
34', Vitor Feijao 🟨,
45+4', Mauricio Ribeiro 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lucas Bonifacio ↓, Adeilson ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Edison Negueba ⚽,
65', Roberto ↓, Gaspar ↑,
65', Vitor Feijao ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
65', Matheus Nunes ↓, Marcelo Freitas ↑,
72', Giovane Gomez ↓, Guilherme Pira ↑,
73', Ravanelli ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
81', Ronald Camarao ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
81', Caique Calito ↓, Bruno Cheron ↑,
81', Salatiel ↓, Felipe Rangel ↑,
87', Jhow Alecxander 🟥,
89', Edison Negueba ↓, Keven ↑,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Maringá may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Caxias will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caxias won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Caxias won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Maringa FC: 6.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Caxias - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 44.11%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
13.06.26	Guarani - Caxias	2:1 ✺
30.05.26	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
23.05.26	Maranhão - Caxias	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Caxias - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Caxias	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTWT
- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
15.06.26	Maringá - Maranhão	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Botafogo PB - Maringá	2:1 ✺
23.05.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Ypiranga - Maringá	1:4 ✺
11.05.26	Maringá - Guarani	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
30.08.25	Maringá - Caxias	3:0
Brazilian Serie D
10.06.18	Caxias - Maringá	3:0
03.06.18	Maringá - Caxias	1:1
10.07.16	Caxias - Maringá	1:2
19.06.16	Maringá - Caxias	3:0

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