Match Info

Serie B - Round 17

Date: 13 July 2026, Monday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Mendonca J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ceará		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.20	4.50	Watch
	1.90	3.00	4.10
	1.86	3.25	4.40	Watch
	1.98	3.20	4.80
	1.86	3.16	4.73	Watch
	1.89	3.10	4.85
	1.82	2.95	4.63	Watch
	1.88	3.10	4.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.91)	3.12 ↓ (3.25)	4.56 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
49.6%

Draw
29.9%

Athletic Club
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

28.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

29.6%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Ceará - Athletic Club Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ceará will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (C) 31. Bryan Borges 18. Julio Cesar 33. Eder 17. Fernando 81. Joao Gabriel 26. Richardson 40. Melk 10. Juan Alano 11. Lucas Mugni 99. Lucca	1. Luan Polli (G) 6. Zeca (C) 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 22. Diogo Batista 15. Jota 16. Joao Miguel 23. Enzo Santos 11. Max 17. Kauan Rodrigues 5. Ian Luccas
Substitutes
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 88. Caio 60. Enzo Lodovico 71. Gabriel Rocha 35. Giulio 90. Kaua Ziegler 13. Luiz Otavio 8. Matheus Araujo 80. Pedro Esli 12. Sanchez 29. Vina 9. Wendel Silva	7. Bruninho 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Vieira 12. Glauco (G) 10. Gustavinho 20. Luiz Fernando 14. Marcelo Henrique 18. Pedro Oliveira 19. Pool J. 21. Vera D.
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Alex Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Jhonatan Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fernando ↓, Sanchez ↑,
46', Julio Cesar ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
60', Richardson ↓, Caio ↑,
60', Juan Alano ↓, Vina ↑,
66', Diogo Batista 🟨,
69', Diogo Batista ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
79', Max ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
79', Joao Miguel ↓, Pedro Oliveira ↑,
80', Lucas Mugni ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
85', Jota ↓, Pool J. ↑,
90+3', Pool J. 🟨,
90+4', Caio 🟨,
90+6', Ian Luccas 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 12).

Ceará is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Athletic's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ceará is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Ceará: Alex Silva (Injury) Gilmar (Injury) Juan Alano (Injury) Vina (Injury) Vinicius Zanocelo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Injury) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ceará: Gustavo Prado (Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Pool J. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Club - the odds 4.1 are the expected chance of winning is 22.69%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
04.07.26	Goiás - Ceará	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Juventude - Ceará	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Ceará - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
15.06.26	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1 ✺
10.06.26	Ceará - Avaí	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLTW
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
07.07.26	Athletic Club - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
28.06.26	Athletic Club - Avaí	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Londrina - Athletic Club	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Athletic Club - Goiás	1:1 ✺
10.06.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLTT

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