Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 14

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.88	3.3	Watch
	2.4	3.1	3.1
	2.45	2.88	3.15
	2.6	2.94	3.33
				Watch
	2.5	2.9	3
	2.55	2.95	3.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.57)	2.94 ↓ (3.24)	3.18 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
37.9%

Draw
32.3%

Corinthians
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

28.3%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Corinthians could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.4%	16.7%	9%

Ceará - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 77 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 57 - 74%). Corinthians will win (votes: 7 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 16.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 64.2% – 83.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Corinthians (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Ceará (1.65) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Ceará (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ceará will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 31 - 79.5%). Corinthians (votes: 3 - 7.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 12.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Diego 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 11. Aylon 77. Fernandinho	1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 5. Andre Ramalho 25. Caca 21. Matheus Bidu 14. Raniele 70. Martinez J. 27. Breno Bidon 8. Garro R. (C) 43. Talles Magno 56. Gui Negao
Substitutes
29. Bruno Tubarao 33. Eder 80. Guilherme Luiz 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 44. Marcos Victor 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 2. Ramos R. 1. Richard (G) 26. Richardson 19. Romulo	26. Angileri F. 19. Carrillo A. 35. Charles Rigon 61. Dieguinho 40. Felipe Longo (G) 22. Hernandez H. 47. Joao Pedro 57. Kaue Junior 31. Kayke 33. Leo Mana 7. Maycon 3. Torres F.
Coaches
Leo Conde	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
39', Lucas Mugni 🟨,
45+1', Matheuzinho 🟨,
45+2', Diego 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Gui Negao 🟨,
62', Lucas Mugni ↓, Lourenco ↑,
66', Breno Bidon ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
66', Martinez J. ↓, Maycon ↑,
70', Fernandinho ↓, Bruno Tubarao ↑,
70', Aylon ↓, Guilherme Luiz ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Talles Magno ⚽,
80', Talles Magno ↓, Charles Rigon ↑,
80', Fernando Sobral ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
80', Galeano A. ↓, Romulo ↑,
83', Maycon ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
84', Garro R. ↓, Angileri F. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2.

Ceará has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Corinthians is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ceará has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Ceará: Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Pedro Henrique (Yellow Cards) Pedro Raul (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Corinthians: Angel Romero (Yellow Cards) Depay M. (Yellow Cards) Yuri Alberto (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Gabriel Lacerda (Inactive) Richard (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Corinthians - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 34.31%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Sport Recife - Ceará	0:1 penalties ✺
07.06.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Ceará	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.06.25	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	3:2 ✺
01.06.25	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWLL
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.25	Corinthians - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 ✺
12.06.25	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
01.06.25	Corinthians - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.25	Huracán Buenos Aires - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.11.22	Corinthians - Ceará	1:0
16.07.22	Ceará - Corinthians	3:1
25.11.21	Ceará - Corinthians	2:1
15.08.21	Corinthians - Ceará	3:1
03.02.21	Corinthians - Ceará	2:1
11.10.20	Ceará - Corinthians	2:1
04.12.19	Ceará - Corinthians	0:1

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