Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 10

Date: 4 June 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Botafogo RJ		Ceará

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	6.5	Watch
	1.58	3.8	6.25
	1.62	3.6	6	Watch
	1.64	3.74	6.48
	1.63	3.67	6.16	Watch
	1.6	3.6	6
	1.64	3.71	6.22	Watch
	1.62	3.6	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.63)	3.67 ↓ (3.78)	6.2 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
58.7%

Draw
25.9%

Ceará
15.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

25%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

24%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	18.2%	13.6%

Botafogo RJ - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Botafogo will win (votes: 13 - 65%). Ceará will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ceará (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Botafogo (2.05) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo RJ will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 9 - 75%). Ceará (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. John Victor (G) 2. Vitinho 32. Jair 57. David Ricardo 13. Alex Telles 26. Gregore 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 23. Rodriguez S. 7. Artur 99. Igor Jesus 39. Gonzalo Mastriani	16. Fernando Miguel (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 30. Nicolas 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Diego 10. Lucas Mugni 7. Pedro Henrique 9. Pedro Raul 27. Galeano A.
Substitutes
25. Allan 20. Barboza A. 5. Danilo Barbosa 33. Elias Manoel 77. Kauan Lindes 19. Kayke 16. Nathan Fernandes 28. Newton 4. Ponte M. 1. Raul Steffens (G) 9. Rwan Cruz 63. Serafim	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 29. Bruno Tubarao 33. Eder 77. Fernandinho 80. Guilherme Luiz 99. Lele 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 44. Marcos Victor 8. Matheus Araujo 40. Ramon Menezes 2. Ramos R.
Coaches
Alves R.	Leo Conde

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Gonzalo Mastriani ⚽,
45+5', Pedro Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
53', Willian Machado 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Pedro Raul ⚽, Lucas Mugni (A),
61', Rodriguez S. ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Alex Telles (Pen),
73', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lourenco ↑,
74', Lucas Mugni ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
76', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Danilo Barbosa ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Marlon Freitas ⚽,
80', Diego ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
80', Pedro Henrique ↓, Lele ↑,
81', Marlon Freitas ↓, Allan ↑,
81', Alex Telles ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
87', 3 - 2, Pedro Raul ⚽, Fabiano (A),
90', Fabiano ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
90+9', Nathan Fernandes 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 1.

Botafogo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ceará has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ceará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Botafogo is the team to beat.

There will not play in Botafogo: Bastos (Knee Injury) Cuiabano (Inactive) Igor Jesus (Inactive) Leo Linck (Inactive)

There are questionable in Botafogo: Matheus Martins (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Fernandinho (Shoulder Injury) Gabriel Lacerda (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Richard (Achilles Tendon Injury) Richardson (Heel Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
01.06.25	Santos - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.05.25	Botafogo RJ - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Capital CF Ltda - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	Botafogo RJ - Estudiantes La Plata	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLTW
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
01.06.25	Ceará - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Ceará - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Santos - Ceará	0:0 ✺
03.05.25	Ceará - Vitória Salvador	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.08.22	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	1:1
17.04.22	Ceará - Botafogo RJ	1:3
25.02.21	Ceará - Botafogo RJ	2:1
31.10.20	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	2:2
08.12.19	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	1:1
14.09.19	Ceará - Botafogo RJ	0:0
15.10.18	Ceará - Botafogo RJ	0:0

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