Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 11

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Ceares		Covadonga

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.1	1.88
	4.13	3.12	1.9
	1.80	3.75	3.85	Watch
	4.01	3.1	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↓ (4.6)	3.27 ↓ (3.4)	2.38 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceares
28.5%

Draw
30.1%

Covadonga
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.7%

26.7%

53.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

26.5%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceares has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceares's performance.

Covadonga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Covadonga might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceares than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceares that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covadonga than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Covadonga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ceares - Covadonga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, ⚽,
19', 🟥,
20', 2 - 0, ⚽,
33', (Pen),
33', 2 - 1, Cueto G. ⚽,
44', 2 - 2, Trabanco A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+2', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 2 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceares won 2.

Ceares has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Covadonga is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Covadonga is the team to beat.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ceares won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceares won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UC Ceares
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
09.11.25	Avilés Stadium - Ceares	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Ceares - Llanera	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Real Titánico - Ceares	0:5 ✺
19.10.25	Ceares - Llanes	1:2 ✺
12.10.25	Sporting de Gijón B - Ceares	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TTWLT
- CD Covadonga
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
09.11.25	Covadonga - Caudal Deportivo	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Club Siero - Covadonga	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Covadonga - Navarro	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Gijón Industrial - Covadonga	1:3 ✺
11.10.25	Covadonga - Praviano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
06.04.25	Covadonga - Ceares	1:0
24.11.24	Ceares - Covadonga	3:1
Club Friendly
26.08.23	Ceares - Covadonga	1:0
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
16.04.23	Covadonga - Ceares	3:1
17.12.22	Ceares - Covadonga	0:3
03.11.19	Covadonga - Ceares	1:1
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
18.02.18	Covadonga - Ceares	1:1

Ceares - Covadonga: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide