Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 15

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.12	3.25	3.35	Watch
	2.21	3.39	3.66
	2.16	3.24	3.63	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.3
	2.14	3.4	3.56	Watch
	2.21	3.25	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.19)	3.29 ↑ (3.13)	3.48 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
44.1%

Draw
28.7%

Cruzeiro
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

29.4%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

30.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	20%	6.7%

Bahia - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Leo Vieira (G) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 14. Erick 6. Jean Lucas 16. Erick Pulga 12. Willian Jose 23. Sanabria M.	81. Otavio Costa (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 34. Jonathan Jesus 2. Kaua Moraes 8. Matheus Henrique 29. Romero L. (C) 11. Gerson 10. Matheus Pereira 17. Sinisterra L. 22. Villarreal N.
Substitutes
7. Ademir 89. Dell 27. Everaldo 3. Gabriel Xavier 2. Gilberto 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 43. Luiz Gustavo 15. Michel Araujo 99. Olivera C. 11. Rodrigo	44. Bruno Alves 91. Chico 88. Christian 77. Japa 43. Joao Marcelo 19. Kaio Jorge 70. Kenji 16. Lucas Silva 7. Marquinhos 31. Matheus Cunha (G) 25. Villalba L. 94. Wanderson
Coaches
Mucke R.	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', Joao Paulo 🟨,
24', Fabricio Bruno 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, Luciano Juba (Penalty Awarded),
34', Willian Jose ↓, Everaldo ↑,
35', Ramos S. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Kaua Moraes ⚽, Villarreal N. (A),
45+3', Everaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sanabria M. ↓, Ademir ↑,
46', Matheus Pereira ↓, Kenji ↑,
61', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
62', Villarreal N. ↓, Kaio Jorge ↑,
62', Kaua Moraes 🟨,
72', Sinisterra L. ↓, Wanderson ↑,
72', Kaua Moraes ↓, Villalba L. ↑,
72', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
72', Erick Pulga ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
77', Romero L. 🟨,
78', Gerson ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Kenji ⚽, Romero L. (A),
89', Otavio Costa 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bahia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bahia: Ronaldo Strada (Shoulder Injury) Ruan Pablo (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Arroyo K. (Red Card) Bruno Rodrigues (Inactive) Cassio (Knee Injury) Kaiki (Red Card) Kaua Prates (Inactive) Marquinhos (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Villarreal N. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 19:28. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Bahia - Santos	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Bahia - Remo	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Flamengo - Bahia	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Mirassol - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TTLLW
- Cruzeiro MG
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Universidad Católica - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Remo - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Goiás - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
15.09.25	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2
17.04.25	Cruzeiro - Bahia	3:0
18.10.24	Cruzeiro - Bahia	1:1
23.06.24	Bahia - Cruzeiro	4:1
25.10.23	Cruzeiro - Bahia	3:0
10.06.23	Bahia - Cruzeiro	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
23.07.22	Cruzeiro - Bahia	1:0

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