Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 11

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz


	Mirassol		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.22	3.25	3.15	Watch
	2.26	3.41	3.45
	2.29	3.4	3.17	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.1
	2.32	3.37	3.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.44)	3.31 ↓ (3.45)	3.26 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
42.3%

Draw
28.7%

Bahia
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

27.6%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

29.7%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Mirassol - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 2. Lucas Oliveira 6. Reinaldo 21. Jose Aldo 25. Neto Moura 11. Negueba 33. Eduardo 95. Edson Carioca 99. Andre Luis	22. Leo Vieira (G) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 8. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 99. Olivera C. 27. Everaldo 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
77. Alesson 23. Alex Muralha (G) 10. Chico Kim 20. Daniel Borges 8. Denilson 17. Everton Galdino 18. Gabriel Pires 9. Nathan Fogaca 7. Shaylon 29. Tiquinho Soares 12. Victor Luis 3. Willian Machado	7. Ademir 14. Erick 3. Gabriel Xavier 2. Gilberto 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 11. Rodrigo 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, David Duarte (Own goal),
41', Reinaldo ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
45+3', Edson Carioca 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Andre Luis ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
46', Caio Alexandre ↓, Gilberto ↑,
57', Jose Aldo 🟨,
60', Edson Carioca ↓, Alesson ↑,
60', Eduardo ↓, Shaylon ↑,
60', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
60', Everaldo ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
61', Victor Luis 🟨,
65', 1 - 1, Luciano Juba (Penalty Awarded),
69', Ademir ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
76', Jose Aldo ↓, Gabriel Pires ↑,
79', Jean Lucas 🟨,
80', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
89', 1 - 2, Sanabria M. ⚽,
90+5', Rafael Guanaes 🟥,
90+7', Eduardo 🟥,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

Mirassol has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bahia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mirassol might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Bahia: Ronaldo Strada (Injury) Ruan Pablo (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Igor Carius (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Kanu (Hamstring Injury) Sanabria M. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 33.48%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Mirassol - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
01.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	Mirassol - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 WLLLL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Remo - Bahia	4:1 ✺
18.03.26	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Internacional RS - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Mirassol - Bahia	5:1
13.04.25	Bahia - Mirassol	1:1

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