Match Info

MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Referee: Barba A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, Fox Sports, Hi! Sports, TVC Deportes 2, TVC Deportes
Venezuela	Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Celaya		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.53	3.8	5
	1.48	4.3	5.8	Watch
	1.51	4.45	6.27
	1.52	4.16	5.99	Watch
	1.53	4	5
	1.54	4.21	5.51	Watch
	1.48	4.3	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.43)	4.17 ↓ (4.47)	5.62 ↓ (6.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celaya
61.3%

Draw
22.2%

Atlético Morelia
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

20.7%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

20%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celaya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Celaya - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hernandez H. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 7. Barragan M. 2. Cervantes D. (C) 6. Del Angel E. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 14. Manriquez S. 3. Monreal E. 11. Tejeda D. 20. Tovar J.	1. Torres A. (G) 14. Dominguez M. 10. Figueroa F. 19. Gallegos D. 4. Garcia J. 8. Martinez J. 18. Martinez J. 32. Ortega W. 2. Parra D. 22. Torres Rodriguez R. D. (C) 9. Trejo C.
Substitutes
25. Blanco D. 29. Espinoza G. (G) 16. Garcia J. 30. Kassi A. 136. Luna E. G. 19. Partida E. 18. Recalde B. 9. Sanchez A. 132. Velazquez C.	87. Arias K. 7. Islas O. 13. Lopez R. 11. Maleck J. 29. Medellin S. 170. Nambo M. 21. Polydoro L. 12. Ramirez S. (G) 99. Romero P. 30. Yrizar P.
Coaches
Blanco Soto S. R.	Castro N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Barragan M. ⚽, Tovar J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Garcia J. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
60', Tejeda D. ↓, Recalde B. ↑,
64', Trejo C. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
69', Del Angel E. 🟨,
74', Dominguez A. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
75', Barragan M. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
79', Martinez J. ↓, Polydoro L. ↑,
80', Dominguez M. ↓, Islas O. ↑,
82', Ortega W. 🟨,
88', Figueroa F. 🟨,
90+1', Tovar J. 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Celaya won 0.

Celaya is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Atlético Morelia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético Morelia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Celaya is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Celaya won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 13:16 (average 1.2:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Celaya won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.4:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.03.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Celaya	2:0 ✺
22.02.25	Celaya - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:1 ✺
12.02.25	Atlético La Paz - Celaya	2:3 ✺
08.02.25	Celaya - Correcaminos UAT	4:1 ✺
01.02.25	Dorados - Celaya	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWWT
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.03.25	Atlético Morelia - Venados	1:0 ✺
15.02.25	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	5:1 ✺
08.02.25	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
31.01.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético Morelia	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.10.24	Atlético Morelia - Celaya	2:0
21.03.24	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	1:2
06.08.23	Atlético Morelia - Celaya	1:0
14.05.23	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	1:3
11.05.23	Atlético Morelia - Celaya	1:1
02.04.23	Atlético Morelia - Celaya	3:2
07.09.22	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	2:0

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