Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Reserves - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)


	Celaya		Leones Negros 2

	1	X	2
	1.97	3.64	3.33
	1.91	3.79	3.33	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.3
	2.07	3.62	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (3.02)	3.59 ↓ (3.62)	3.27 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celaya
46.4%

Draw
25.5%

Leones Negros 2
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

25.4%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

23.5%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Celaya's performance.

Leones Negros 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leones Negros 2 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (-13.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Celaya that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros 2 than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leones Negros 2 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Celaya - Leones Negros 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, ⚽,
34', 2 - 0, ⚽,
45', 3 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
59', 4 - 0, ⚽,
78', 5 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Celaya is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Leones Negros 2 is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Celaya could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Leones Negros 2 - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.18%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
29.03.26	Montañeses - Celaya	5:1 ✺
21.03.26	Celaya - Inter Playa Del Carmen	0:0 ✺
13.03.26	Héroes de Zaci - Celaya	3:2 ✺
02.03.26	Celaya - Chapulineros de Oaxaca	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Racing de Veracruz - Celaya	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLWL
- Leones Negros 2
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
21.03.26	Leones Negros 2 - Guerreros de Autlán	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Mineros de Fresnillo - Leones Negros 2	3:1 ✺
07.03.26	Leones Negros 2 - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Ensenada - Leones Negros 2	1:4 ✺
21.02.26	Leones Negros 2 - Zapotlanejo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLWWW

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