Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Z'dezele (Celje)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	Disney+
France	Canal+ Live 8
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 8
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 14, Blue Sport 14
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Celje		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.9	1.73
	4.25	3.95	1.72
	4.49	4.04	1.77
	4.59	4.06	1.71	Watch
	4.2	3.7	1.7
	4.18	3.95	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↑ (3.39)	3.93 ↑ (3.52)	1.74 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celje
21.7%

Draw
24%

AEK Athens
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

27%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

27.7%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celje's form might have worsened.

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AEK Athens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celje, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AEK Athens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	10.5%	73.7%

Celje - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 9 - 16.1%). AEK will win (votes: 42 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 8.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AEK: 63.7% – 86.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 5 - 27.8%). AEK (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1 - Celje (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Celje (2.23) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Celje (3.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 8 - 36.4%). AEK (votes: 13 - 59.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leban Z. (G) 2. Juanjo Nieto 44. Bejger L. 6. Tutyskinas A. 23. Karnicnik Z. (C) 10. Seslar S. 4. Hrka D. 8. Kvesic M. 20. Iosifov N. 47. Kucys A. 94. Pozeg R.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. (C) 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 8. Gacinovic M. 18. Marin R. 13. Pineda O. 11. Koita A. 25. Varga B. 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
11. Avdyli M. 27. Calusic I. 15. Castro D. 13. Daniel P. 7. Jevsenak F. 12. Kolar L. (G) 17. Kotnik A. 21. Sluga S. (G) 16. Vidovic I. 5. Vodeb G. 3. Vuklisevic D.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 15. Georgiev M. 17. Kaloskamis D. 7. Kutesa D. 20. Mantalos P. 29. Penrice J. 37. Pereyra R. 21. Vida D. 90. Zini
Coaches
Maevskiy I.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, Varga B. ⚽, Marin R. (A),
30', Hrka D. 🟨,
33', 0 - 2, Koita A. ⚽, Jovic L. (A),
36', 0 - 3, Gacinovic M. ⚽,
45', Pineda O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hrka D. ↓, Daniel P. ↑,
46', Tutyskinas A. ↓, Castro D. ↑,
49', 0 - 4, Moukoudi H. ⚽, Marin R. (A),
57', Koita A. 🟨,
58', Pozeg R. ↓, Avdyli M. ↑,
73', Koita A. ↓, Kutesa D. ↑,
73', Pineda O. ↓, Pereyra R. ↑,
75', Kvesic M. ↓, Kotnik A. ↑,
78', Jovic L. ↓, Zini ↑,
78', Gacinovic M. ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
81', Castro D. 🟨,
85', Seslar S. ↓, Vidovic I. ↑,
86', Varga B. ↓, Kaloskamis D. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Celje has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

AEK is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

AEK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

AEK might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Celje: Pranjic J. (Inactive) Vukasovic N. (Inactive) Zabukovnik M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in AEK: Callens A. (Heart Problems) Grujic M. (Inactive) Joao Mario (Inactive) Jonsson J. (Inactive) Ljubicic R. (Inactive) Sahabo H. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Celje won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Including home match between the teams, Celje won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
05.03.26	Aluminij Kidricevo - Celje	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	NK Bravo - Celje	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Celje - Drita Gjilan	3:2 ✺
19.02.26	Drita Gjilan - Celje	2:3 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
14.02.26	Celje - Mura	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLWWW
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
07.03.26	AEK Athens - AEL Larissa	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Volos - AEK Athens	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	AEK Athens - Levadiakos	4:0 ✺
15.02.26	PAOK - AEK Athens	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Panserraikos - AEK Athens	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Celje - AEK Athens	3:1

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