Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Z'dezele (Celje)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Slovenia	Sport TV1


	Celje		AEK Larnaca

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.85
	2.48	3.15	2.78	Watch
	2.6	3.25	2.82
	2.22	3.17	3.35	Watch
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.58	3.28	2.86	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.2)	3.16 ↑ (3.1)	2.92 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celje
38.4%

Draw
29.6%

AEK Larnaca
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

29.6%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

AEK Larnaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59.1%	27.3%	13.6%

Celje - AEK Larnaca Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 13 - 61.9%). AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 41.1% – 82.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Celje (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - AEK Larnaca (5.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 1 - 14.3%). AEK Larnaca (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leban Z. (G) 2. Juanjo Nieto 23. Karnicnik Z. (C) 3. Vuklisevic D. 6. Tutyskinas A. 19. Zabukovnik M. 8. Kvesic M. 17. Kotnik A. 20. Iosifov N. 10. Sturm D. 9. Kovacevic F.	1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 22. Ekpolo G. 15. Milicevic H. 27. Roberge V. 14. Garcia A. (C) 8. Rohden M. 7. Ledes Gustavo 17. Pons P. 18. Chacon Y. 10. Rubio W. 19. Angielski K.
Substitutes
11. Avdyli M. 44. Bejger L. 14. Chidi A. 24. Dzevahiric F. 4. Hrka D. 7. Jevsenak F. 12. Kolar L. (G) 16. Vidovic I. 5. Vodeb G.	24. Danny Henriques 99. Demetriou D. (G) 44. Evripidou K. 37. Gerasimou D. 2. Ioannou P. 6. Jimmy Suarez 36. Loukaidis C. 41. Mathias Gonzalez 21. Miramon 51. Paraskevas A. (G) 35. Thoma C.
Coaches
Riera A.	Idiakez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Karnicnik Z. 🟨,
27', Roberge V. 🟨,
27', Idiakez I. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Kovacevic F. (Pen),
40', Chacon Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, Milicevic H. (Pen),
62', Kvesic M. 🟨,
64', Sturm D. ↓, Avdyli M. ↑,
73', Leban Z. 🟨,
80', Angielski K. ↓, Jimmy Suarez ↑,
83', Garcia A. ↓, Danny Henriques ↑,
85', Danny Henriques 🟨,
89', Kotnik A. ↓, Chidi A. ↑,
90+2', Rubio W. ↓, Loukaidis C. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

AEK Larnaca is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

AEK Larnaca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
20.07.25	Maribor - Celje	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.07.25	Celje - Sabah	3:3 ET ✺
10.07.25	Sabah - Celje	2:3 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
25.05.25	Celje - Domžale	1:1 ✺
18.05.25	Nafta - Celje	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWTW
- AEK Larnaca
UEFA Europa League
17.07.25	Partizan - AEK Larnaca	2:2 penalties ✺
10.07.25	AEK Larnaca - Partizan	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Anderlecht - AEK Larnaca	2:2 ✺
28.06.25	AEK Larnaca - Seraing	3:3 ✺
25.06.25	Westerlo - AEK Larnaca	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWTTW

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