Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 11 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadion Z'dezele (Celje)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Armenia	1TV
Slovakia	Kanal A
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Celje		Ararat-Armenia

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.50	6.25	Watch
	1.47	4.60	6.25
	1.38	4.60	7.00	Watch
	1.51	4.60	6.75
	1.39	5.07	7.35	Watch
	1.48	4.25	6.50
	1.49	4.59	6.08	Watch
	1.47	4.60	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.82)	4.6 ↑ (3.72)	6.52 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celje
65%

Draw
20.5%

Ararat-Armenia
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

25.6%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

27.6%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Celje's performance.

Ararat-Armenia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ararat-Armenia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celje than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Celje that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ararat-Armenia than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ararat-Armenia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.8%	12.1%	3%

Celje - Ararat Armenia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ararat-Armenia (2.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Celje will win (28 of 32 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.04% – 98.96%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 2 - 50%). Ararat-Armenia (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leban Z. (G) 2. Sirvys P. 4. Hrka D. 6. Tutyskinas A. 33. Koutris L. 8. Kvesic M. 19. Zabukovnik M. (C) 10. Seslar S. 77. Ivansek M. 47. Kucys A. 11. Avdyli M.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 3. Junior Julio 43. Wilson Valdez B. R. 47. Malis A. 16. Grigoryan E. 2. Oliveira H. 19. Muradyan K. (C) 20. Tera A. 77. Serobyan A. 91. Sandro Lima 11. Banjaqui Z.
Substitutes
27. Calusic I. 20. Dionkou A. 91. Dukuly Y. 23. Frelih Z. (G) 12. Kolar L. (G) 17. Kotnik A. 99. Poplatnik M. 94. Pozeg R. 25. Tusha V. 7. Verbic B. 3. Vuklisevic D.	90. Ayongo P. 6. Ayvazyan M. 8. Balanta J. A. 70. Benny 17. Carlier M. 9. Eloyan A. 95. Franca Carlos 5. Luis Felipe 25. Ndour A. 1. Nersesyan A. (G) 14. Pereira B. 7. Shaghoyan Z.
Coaches
Campelos V.	Tulipa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Tera A. 🟨,
19', Oliveira H. 🟨,
32', Koutris L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Koutris L. ↓, Verbic B. ↑,
55', Tera A. ↓, Benny ↑,
64', Tutyskinas A. 🟨,
66', Avdyli M. 🟨,
69', Sirvys P. ↓, Dukuly Y. ↑,
69', Kucys A. ↓, Poplatnik M. ↑,
73', Oliveira H. ↓, Carlier M. ↑,
73', Serobyan A. ↓, Franca Carlos ↑,
78', Zabukovnik M. 🟨,
83', 1 - 0, Dukuly Y. ⚽, Avdyli M. (A),
84', Banjaqui Z. 🟨,
85', 2 - 0, Verbic B. ⚽,
86', Verbic B. 🟨,
89', Banjaqui Z. ↓, Ndour A. ↑,
90', Muradyan K. ↓, Balanta J. A. ↑,
90+1', Seslar S. ↓, Calusic I. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2.

Recent performances by Celje have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ararat-Armenia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ararat-Armenia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Celje is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Celje won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Celje - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 52.44%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
08.08.26	Celje - Olimpija Ljubljana	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.08.26	Ararat-Armenia - Celje	2:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
01.08.26	Celje - Maribor	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.07.26	Celje - Egnatia Rrogozhinë	3:2 penalties ✺
22.07.26	Egnatia Rrogozhinë - Celje	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLTWT
- FC Ararat-Armenia
Armenian Premier League
07.08.26	Ararat-Armenia - Urartu Yerevan	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.08.26	Ararat-Armenia - Celje	2:1 ✺
Armenian Premier League
01.08.26	Gandzasar - Ararat-Armenia	3:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.07.26	Shamrock Rovers - Ararat-Armenia	2:1 ✺
21.07.26	Ararat-Armenia - Shamrock Rovers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
04.08.26	Ararat-Armenia - Celje	2:1
UEFA Europa League
24.09.20	Ararat-Armenia - Celje	1:0 ET

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