Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 6 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Z'dezele (Celje)

Referee: Alberola J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Disney+
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 16
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 16, Blue Sport 16
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 18
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Celje		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3
	2.18	3.7	3.05
	2.25	3.7	3.13
	2.43	3.31	2.90	Watch
	2.36	3.58	3.05
	2.3	3.65	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.23)	3.57 ↑ (3.36)	2.98 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celje
41.5%

Draw
26.6%

Legia Warsaw
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

27.8%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

26.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.1%	6.5%	6.5%

Celje - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 27 - 87.1%). Legia will win (votes: 2 - 6.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 75.3% – 98.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Celje (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Celje (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Legia (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Celje will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 14 - 87.5%). Legia (votes: 2 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leban Z. (G) 6. Tutyskinas A. 44. Bejger L. 2. Juanjo Nieto 23. Karnicnik Z. (C) 7. Jevsenak F. 8. Kvesic M. 11. Avdyli M. 10. Sturm D. 20. Iosifov N. 9. Kovacevic F.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 8. Augustyniak R. 82. Urbanski K. 77. Krasniqi E. 14. Colak A. 30. Stojanovic P.
Substitutes
42. Boben M. 13. Daniel P. 4. Hrka D. 12. Kolar L. (G) 17. Kotnik A. 71. Lisakovich V. 99. Poplatnik M. 94. Pozeg R. 16. Vidovic I. 5. Vodeb G. 3. Vuklisevic D.	50. Banasik W. (G) 4. Burch M. 11. Chodyna K. 22. Elitim J. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 91. Piatkowski K. 29. Rajovic M. 44. Szymanski D. 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Riera A.	Astiz I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Urbanski K. ⚽, Kapustka B. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Jevsenak F. ↓, Hrka D. ↑,
48', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
52', Kvesic M. 🟨,
59', Avdyli M. ↓, Lisakovich V. ↑,
59', Tutyskinas A. ↓, Vodeb G. ↑,
66', Kapustka B. 🟨,
68', Colak A. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
68', Stojanovic P. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Iosifov N. ⚽, Kvesic M. (A),
77', 2 - 1, Karnicnik Z. ⚽,
78', Urbanski K. ↓, Elitim J. ↑,
78', Bejger L. ↓, Vuklisevic D. ↑,
86', Krasniqi E. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
86', Kapustka B. ↓, Zewlakow J. ↑,
86', Kvesic M. ↓, Kotnik A. ↑,
87', Zewlakow J. 🟨,

Preview

Celje is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Legia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Celje: Kucys A. (Knee Injury) Sluga S. (Inactive) Zabukovnik M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Arreiol H. (Muscle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Legia: Reca A. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
01.11.25	Celje - Aluminij Kidricevo	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Mura - Celje	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Shamrock Rovers - Celje	0:2 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
18.10.25	Celje - Olimpija Ljubljana	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Radomlje - Celje	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWTW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.25	Widzew Łódź - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.10.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLTWL

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