Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	13:45	Disney+
Armenia	20:45	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Australia	03:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Canada	12:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	13:45	Disney+
China	00:45	ZhiBo8
Colombia	11:45	Disney+
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Greece	19:45	ANT 1+
Hong Kong	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	16:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Laos	23:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
New Zealand	05:45	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	11:45	Disney+
Philippines	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	19:45	Okko Sport
Singapore	00:45	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 14
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Thailand	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	17:45	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	13:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	12:45	Disney+
Vietnam	23:45	ON Plus


	Shakhtar Donetsk		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.7	4.2
	1.82	3.55	4.15
	1.86	3.74	4.4
	4.83	3.40	1.78	Watch
	1.82	3.73	4.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (1.67)	3.62 ↓ (4)	3.8 ↓ (4.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shakhtar Donetsk
43.3%

Draw
29%

Legia Warsaw
27.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.4%

23.5%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

22.7%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shakhtar Donetsk's form might have worsened.

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Legia Warsaw's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+15.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shakhtar Donetsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Legia Warsaw, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	11.1%	14.8%

Shakhtar Donetsk - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Shakhtar will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). Legia will win (votes: 4 - 14.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shakhtar: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 4 - 50%). Legia (votes: 4 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Shakhtar (3.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Legia (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Fesyun K. (G) 26. Konoplya Y. 18. Ghram A. 22. Matviienko M. (C) 16. Azarovi I. 6. Marlon Gomes 9. Shved M. 21. Bondarenko A. 14. Isaque Silva 7. Eguinaldo 49. Luca Meirelles	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 91. Piatkowski K. 3. Kapuadi S. 13. Reca A. 53. Urbanski W. 8. Augustyniak R. (C) 22. Elitim J. 11. Chodyna K. 29. Rajovic M. 77. Krasniqi E.
Substitutes
3. Arroyo D. 5. Bondar V. 74. Faryna M. 20. Glushchenko A. 19. Kaua Elias 37. Lucas Ferreira 4. Marlon 29. Nazaryna Y. 11. Newerton 27. Ocheretko O. 31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V.	21. Bichakhchyan V. 14. Colak A. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 67. Kapustka B. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 12. Pankov R. 30. Stojanovic P. 44. Szymanski D. 82. Urbanski K. 19. Vinagre R. 99. Weisshaupt N. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Turan A.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Augustyniak R. ⚽,
33', Marlon Gomes 🟨,
43', Rajovic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Eguinaldo ↓, Newerton ↑,
59', Shved M. ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
59', Bondarenko A. ↓, Glushchenko A. ↑,
59', Rajovic M. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
59', Urbanski W. ↓, Kapustka B. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Luca Meirelles ⚽, Konoplya Y. (A),
67', Krasniqi E. ↓, Stojanovic P. ↑,
77', Marlon Gomes ↓, Nazaryna Y. ↑,
82', Konoplya Y. 🟨,
84', Konoplya Y. ↓, Tobias V. ↑,
85', Elitim J. ↓, Urbanski K. ↑,
85', Chodyna K. ↓, Zewlakow J. ↑,
90+3', Nazaryna Y. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 2, Augustyniak R. ⚽,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.

Shakhtar is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Legia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Shakhtar is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Shakhtar: Alisson (Foot Injury) Khromey M. (Inactive) Kornienko V. (Inactive) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Topalov D. (Inactive) Traore L. (Muscle Injury) Udod D. (Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Arreiol H. (Muscle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
18.10.25	Polissya Zhytomyr - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - LNZ Cherkasy	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Aberdeen - Shakhtar Donetsk	2:3 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
28.09.25	Rukh Lviv - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:4 ✺
22.09.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Zorya Luhansk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWWW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.10.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLWT

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