Match Info

LaLiga - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo)

Referee: Soto Grado C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 2
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
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Bangladesh	Begin
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Brazil	Disney+
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Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
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China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
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Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
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Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
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Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
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North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
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Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
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Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga 2, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV12, TV4 Play
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Celta de Vigo		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.75	1.73	Watch
	4.5	3.6	1.78
	4.7	3.95	1.75	Watch
	4.9	3.9	1.77
	5.1	3.96	1.76	Watch
	4.35	3.75	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.72 ↑ (3.76)	3.82 ↑ (3.71)	1.76 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
20.4%

Draw
25.1%

Atlético Madrid
54.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.2%

25.5%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

25.3%

49.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Madrid's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.4%	7.1%	87.5%

Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Atlético (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Celta (2.01) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (98 of 112 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.38% – 93.63%. The data is statistically significant.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (66 of 69 users predict this - 95.65%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 72 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 2 - 2.8%). Atlético (votes: 68 - 94.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 2.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 2. Starfelt C. 20. Alonso M. 5. Carreira S. 14. Rodriguez D. 8. Beltran F. (C) 3. Mingueza O. 9. Jutgla F. 19. Swedberg W. 7. Iglesias B.	13. Oblak J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 24. Le Normand R. 15. Lenglet C. 17. Hancko D. 20. Simeone G. 8. Barrios P. 6. Koke (C) 23. Gonzalez N. 7. Griezmann A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
23. Alvarez H. 10. Aspas I. 24. Dominguez C. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 12. Fernandez M. 6. Moriba I. 16. Roman M. 17. Rueda J. 22. Sotelo H. 1. Villar I. (G) 15. Zaragoza B.	10. Baena A. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 21. Galan J. 4. Gallagher C. 12. Martin C. 16. Molina N. 18. Pubill M. 22. Raspadori G. 3. Ruggeri M. 28. Seidu T. 9. Sorloth A.
Coaches
Giraldez C.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Starfelt C. (Own goal), Barrios P. (A),
25', Lenglet C. 🟨,
40', Lenglet C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Griezmann A. ↓, Galan J. ↑,
55', Beltran F. ↓, Alvarez H. ↑,
63', Jutgla F. ↓, Aspas I. ↑,
63', Swedberg W. ↓, Zaragoza B. ↑,
65', Iglesias B. 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Aspas I. ⚽,
76', Galan J. ↓, Baena A. ↑,
77', Koke ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
78', Baena A. 🟨,
81', Alvarez J. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
82', Simeone G. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
84', Carreira S. ↓, Moriba I. ↑,
84', Iglesias B. ↓, Duran P. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Celta won 0.

Celta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Celta: Aidoo J. (Coach's decision) Cervi F. (Coach's decision) Lago Y. (Inactive) Ristic M. (Back Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Almada T. (Muscle Injury) Cardoso J. (Ankle Injury) Gimenez J. M. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Celta won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 13:37. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Celta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 4:15. (average 0.4:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Celta de Vigo - PAOK	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.25	Elche - Celta de Vigo	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Stuttgart - Celta de Vigo	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.09.25	Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Celta de Vigo - Girona	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLTT
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Eintracht Frankfurt	5:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	5:2 ✺
24.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	3:2 ✺
21.09.25	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Liverpool - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
15.02.25	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	1:1
26.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:1
12.05.24	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	1:0
21.10.23	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:3
12.02.23	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:1
10.09.22	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	4:1
26.02.22	Atlético Madrid - Celta de Vigo	2:0

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