Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio de Balaídos (Vigo)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Celta de Vigo		PAOK

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.9	5.25
	1.72	3.7	4.8
	1.65	3.75	6
	1.65	3.94	5.76
	1.63	3.97	5.47	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5
	1.69	3.98	5.36
	1.8	3.66	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.81)	3.81 ↑ (3.64)	5.25 ↑ (4.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celta de Vigo
56.8%

Draw
25%

PAOK
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

26.2%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

29.1%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

PAOK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PAOK than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	13.3%	6.7%

Celta de Vigo - PAOK Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Celta (1.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - PAOK (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.26) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.75 - Celta (1.80) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - PAOK (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Celta de Vigo will win (60 of 74 users predict this - 81.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.16% – 90%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Celta de Vigo will win (27 of 28 users predict this - 96.43%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Celta (votes: 30 - 88.2%). PAOK (votes: 3 - 8.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Radu I. (G) 32. Rodriguez J. 2. Starfelt C. 20. Alonso M. 5. Carreira S. 15. Vecino M. 10. Aspas I. (C) 6. Moriba I. 17. Rueda J. 7. Iglesias B. 19. Swedberg W.	99. Tsiftsis A. (G) 3. Kenny J. 16. Kedziora T. (C) 5. Michailidis G. 21. Baba A. R. 27. Ozdoev M. 20. Zafeiris C. 35. Sanchez J. 22. Bianco A. 52. Chatsidis D. 7. Giakoumakis G.
Substitutes
4. Aidoo J. 23. Alvarez H. 24. Dominguez C. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 12. Fernandez M. 9. Jutgla F. 30. Lopez F. 3. Mingueza O. 14. Nunez A. 21. Ristic M. 16. Roman M. 1. Villar I. (G)	39. Berdos D. 2. Camara M. 37. Dunga B. 19. Jeremejeff A. 41. Monastirlis D. (G) 81. Nikolakoulis V. (G) 32. Taylor G. 25. Thymianis K. 4. Vogliacco A.
Coaches
Giraldez C.	Lucescu R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Moriba I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Moriba I. ↓, Roman M. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Swedberg W. ⚽, Aspas I. (A),
64', Bianco A. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
67', Aspas I. ↓, Jutgla F. ↑,
74', Chatsidis D. ↓, Taylor G. ↑,
77', Iglesias B. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
77', Swedberg W. ↓, El Abdellaoui J. ↑,
80', Giakoumakis G. ↓, Jeremejeff A. ↑,
89', Alonso M. ↓, Dominguez C. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1. Second leg.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Celta is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Celta: Duran P. (Knee Injury) Nunez A. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in PAOK: Balde M. (Inactive) Despodov K. (Injury) Ivanusec L. (Toe Injury) Konstantelias G. (Inactive) Meite S. (Injury) Murg T. (Inactive) Pelkas D. (Injury) Sastre J. (Inactive) Zivkovic A. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Celta: Sotelo H. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in PAOK: Lovren D. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Celta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Celta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Celta Vigo: 4.87%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
22.02.26	Celta de Vigo - Mallorca	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	PAOK - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.02.26	Espanyol - Celta de Vigo	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	Celta de Vigo - Osasuna	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Getafe - Celta de Vigo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWTLT
- PAOK FC
Greek Super League
22.02.26	AEL Larissa - PAOK	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	PAOK - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
Greek Super League
15.02.26	PAOK - AEK Athens	0:0 ✺
Greek Cup
11.02.26	PAOK - Panathinaikos	2:0 ✺
Greek Super League
08.02.26	Aris - PAOK	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	PAOK - Celta de Vigo	1:2
02.10.25	Celta de Vigo - PAOK	3:1

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