Match Info

LaLiga - Round 5

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix (Palma de Mallorca)

Referee: Maeso F. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mallorca		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.75	Watch
	5	3.5	1.73
	4.7	3.55	1.78	Watch
	5	3.61	1.83
	4.5	3.2	1.85
	5.41	3.66	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.89 ↓ (5.1)	3.52 ↓ (3.58)	1.78 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mallorca
19.5%

Draw
27%

Atlético Madrid
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

26.8%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

26.9%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mallorca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	4.8%	90.3%

Mallorca - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Atlético (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (55 of 61 users predict this - 90.16%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.69% – 97.63%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (25 of 25 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 27 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roman L. (G) 2. Morey Bauza M. 24. Valjent M. 21. Raillo A. (C) 4. Kumbulla M. 22. Mojica J. 10. Darder S. 8. Morlanes M. 12. Samu Costa 11. Asano T. 7. Muriqi V.	13. Oblak J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 24. Le Normand R. 15. Lenglet C. 17. Hancko D. 20. Simeone G. 6. Koke (C) 8. Barrios P. 23. Gonzalez N. 19. Alvarez J. 22. Raspadori G.
Substitutes
13. Bergstrom L. (G) 30. Domenech M. 18. Joseph M. 3. Lato T. 27. Lopez D. 23. Maffeo P. 5. Mascarell O. 25. Pichu Cuellar (G) 9. Prats A. 6. Sanchez A. 20. Torre P. 17. Virgili J.	31. Esquivel S. (G) 21. Galan J. 4. Gallagher C. 7. Griezmann A. 12. Martin C. 16. Molina N. 27. Monserrate J. 1. Musso J. (G) 18. Pubill M. 3. Ruggeri M. 28. Seidu T. 9. Sorloth A.
Coaches
Arrasate J.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Alvarez J. (Pen),
36', Kumbulla M. ↓, Torre P. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', Alvarez J. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
63', Simeone G. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
63', Raspadori G. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
67', Samu Costa ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
68', Asano T. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
68', Barrios P. ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
73', Sorloth A. 🟥,
75', Gonzalez N. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,
79', 0 - 1, Gallagher C. ⚽,
82', Morey Bauza M. ↓, Virgili J. ↑,
82', Morlanes M. ↓, Prats A. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Muriqi V. ⚽, Virgili J. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mallorca won 0.

Recent form of Mallorca has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mallorca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlético is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Mallorca: Llabres J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Almada T. (Muscle Injury) Baena A. (Muscle Injury) Gimenez J. M. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético: Alvarez J. (Knee Injury) Cardoso J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mallorca won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 0.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Mallorca won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RCD Mallorca
Spanish LaLiga
15.09.25	Espanyol - Mallorca	3:2 ✺
30.08.25	Real Madrid - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Mallorca - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Mallorca - Barcelona	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Mallorca - Hamburger SV	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTLW
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Liverpool - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Atlético Madrid - Elche	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Espanyol - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
01.02.25	Atlético Madrid - Mallorca	2:0
10.11.24	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	0:1
04.05.24	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	0:1
25.11.23	Atlético Madrid - Mallorca	1:0
26.04.23	Atlético Madrid - Mallorca	3:1
09.11.22	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	1:0
09.04.22	Mallorca - Atlético Madrid	1:0

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