Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Palermo (Montevideo)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Central Español		Cerro

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.88	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.4
	2.08	3.05	3.5
	2.15	3.22	3.65
	2.11	3.19	3.57	Watch
	2.1	3	3.5
	2.14	3.1	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.43)	3.08 ↑ (3.02)	3.53 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Central Español
43.9%

Draw
30%

Cerro
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

31%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

31%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Central Español has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Central Español's performance.

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Central Español than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Central Español that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Central Español - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Central Español will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Rodolfo (G) 17. Fernandez L. 2. Rodriguez I. 14. Villoldo A. (C) 3. Dupont J. 24. Gandolfo G. 4. Montiel M. 30. Alonso M. 10. Muniz R. 32. Aguilera M. 9. Tarragona R.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 16. Guasone J. 5. Macelli A. (C) 17. Rodriguez G. 22. Suarez D. 32. Mederos R. 31. Amaro J. 6. Bregante F. 10. Aleman B. 9. Morales B. 28. Cambon A.
Substitutes
22. Aramburu E. 11. Gandulfo L. 23. Gonella I. 16. Mendez I. 25. Navarro S. 21. Pino L. 12. Rodriguez S. (G) 27. Sosa F. 20. Vera D. 18. Yocco F.	4. Arguello M. 27. Barros C. 44. Carlos R. 41. Cristoforo S. 12. Irrazabal Y. (G) 3. Lima A. 35. Nongoy P. 13. Quinteros B. 33. Rijo T. 14. Soria N.
Coaches
de Ambrosio P.	Apud A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Irrazabal Y. 🟨,
13', Amaro J. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Alonso M. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Rodriguez I. (Own goal),
39', Suarez D. 🟨,
42', Fernandez L. 🟥,
45+3', Villoldo A. 🟨,
45+3', Macelli A. 🟨,
45+4', 2 - 1, Tarragona R. (Penalty Awarded),
45+6', Rodolfo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Amaro J. ↓, Cristoforo S. ↑,
46', Alonso M. ↓, Navarro S. ↑,
51', Guasone J. 🟨,
60', Bregante F. ↓, Barros C. ↑,
60', Guasone J. ↓, Lima A. ↑,
60', Mederos R. ↓, Rijo T. ↑,
68', Aguilera M. ↓, Gandulfo L. ↑,
68', Muniz R. ↓, Sosa F. ↑,
68', Suarez D. ↓, Carlos R. ↑,
70', Macelli A. 🟨,
75', Tarragona R. ↓, Vera D. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Vera D. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Aleman B. 🟨,
83', Montiel M. ↓, Pino L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Central Español won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Cerro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Central Español is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Central Español won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Central Español won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14

Last Results with these Odds

Central Español - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.48%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Cerro - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.56%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Central Español
Uruguayan Primera Division
17.04.26	Albion Montevideo - Central Español	6:1 ✺
12.04.26	Central Español - Danubio	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Central Español	0:1 ✺
30.03.26	Central Español - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Central Español	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.4 LTWWT
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.26	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	3:0 ✺
25.03.26	Cerro - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
05.08.22	Cerro - Central Español	2:0
13.05.22	Central Español - Cerro	1:2
28.09.21	Cerro - Central Español	0:0
16.06.21	Central Español - Cerro	3:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
18.05.13	Central Español - Cerro	0:2
25.11.12	Cerro - Central Español	0:2

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