Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerro		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.9	2.25	Watch
	3.2	2.98	2.28
	3.41	3.04	2.37
	3.35	3	2.32	Watch
	3.25	2.9	2.3
	3.27	3.09	2.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (3.09)	2.99 ↓ (3.16)	2.3 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
28.3%

Draw
31.2%

Defensor Sporting
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

29.5%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

29.6%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Cerro - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cerro will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerro (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Cerro (5.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerro (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 22. Suarez D. 5. Macelli A. 16. Guasone J. 17. Rodriguez G. 6. Bregante F. 31. Amaro J. 35. Nongoy P. 10. Aleman B. 27. Barros C. 9. Morales B.	12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 24. de los Santos L. 14. Sorondo F. 15. Frugone A. 30. Cuello E. 5. Barrios G. 77. Castro F. 8. Wunsch N. 9. Machado A. 26. Montenegro B.
Coaches
Apud A.	Cuello R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Aleman B. 🟨,
40', Cuello E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Arguello M. 🟨,
59', Macelli A. 🟨,
65', Frugone A. 🟨,
67', Nongoy P. ↓, Rijo T. ↑,
67', Wunsch N. ↓, Lozano B. ↑,
67', Cuello E. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
75', Machado A. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
75', Castro F. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
77', Navarro L. 🟨,
83', 1 - 0, Aleman B. ⚽,
85', Morales B. 🟨,
87', Guasone J. 🟨,
88', Morales B. ↓, Soria N. ↑,
90', Sorondo F. ↓, Caballero M. ↑,
90+2', Aleman B. ↓, Mederos R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 1.

Recent form of Cerro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Defensor Sporting's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Defensor Sporting may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Defensor Sporting could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:28. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.6:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.21%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Defensor Sporting - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.24%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	3:0 ✺
25.03.26	Cerro - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Cerro - Progreso	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLLL
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
31.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Albion Montevideo	1:1 ✺
26.03.26	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Defensor Sporting - Central Español	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0
22.06.25	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	2:1
14.04.25	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	3:2
07.09.24	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:1
25.02.24	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	5:0
15.11.23	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:1
08.04.23	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	1:1

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