Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo)

Referee: Rodriguez D. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerro		Montevideo City Torque

	1	X	2
	3.5	3	2.05	Watch
	3.5	3.05	2.08
	3.89	3.16	2.14
	3.68	3.2	2.09	Watch
	3.6	3	2.05
	3.72	3.11	2.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↓ (3.71)	3.09 ↓ (3.12)	2.08 (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
25.4%

Draw
30.1%

Montevideo City Torque
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

29.9%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

28.6%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Montevideo City Torque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Cerro - Montevideo City Torque Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 16. Guasone J. 5. Macelli A. (C) 17. Rodriguez G. 22. Suarez D. 6. Bregante F. 32. Mederos R. 13. Quinteros B. 10. Aleman B. 9. Morales B. 28. Cambon A.	1. Torgnascioli F. (G) 17. Aguero E. 2. Romero F. 24. Kagelmacher G. (C) 3. Silva K. 20. Montes G. 8. Siles P. 26. Silvera F. 10. Obregon E. 9. Rodriguez S. 18. Lecchini R.
Substitutes
4. Arguello M. 27. Barros C. 40. Capdevila D. (G) 3. Lima A. 35. Nongoy P. 33. Rijo T. 7. Severo A. 14. Soria N. 24. Valenzuela I.	7. Andrade L. 32. Caceres S. 11. Da Silva N. 23. Dure L. 19. Guzman D. 14. Kociubinski B. 30. Quintana J. 13. Rodriguez G. (G) 27. Taran J.
Coaches
Apud A.	Mendez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Bregante F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Lecchini R. ↓, Andrade L. ↑,
64', Suarez D. ↓, Cristoforo S. ↑,
64', Quinteros B. ↓, Arguello M. ↑,
64', Cambon A. ↓, Nongoy P. ↑,
67', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
67', Obregon E. 🟨,
72', Kagelmacher G. 🟨,
76', Kagelmacher G. ↓, Guzman D. ↑,
77', Mederos R. ↓, Barros C. ↑,
77', Rodriguez G. ↓, Lima A. ↑,
88', 1 - 0, Macelli A. ⚽,
89', Romero F. 🟨,
89', Montes G. ↓, Da Silva N. ↑,
90', Aguero E. ↓, Quintana J. ↑,
90+6', Guzman D. 🟨,
90+8', 1 - 1, Obregon E. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Cerro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Montevideo City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Montevideo City	9	6	1	2	19:10	9	19
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro - the odds 3.71 are the expected chance of winning is 25.17%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.04.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	3:0 ✺
25.03.26	Cerro - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWLWL
- Montevideo City Torque
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Palestino - Montevideo City Torque	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
18.10.25	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	1:2
20.04.25	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	1:2
18.11.23	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	1:0
16.04.23	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	0:2
31.01.21	Cerro - Montevideo City Torque	1:3
22.11.20	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	3:0
07.03.20	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro	1:1

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