Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 3

Date: 29 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla (Melo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerro Largo		Cerro

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.18	3	3.35
	2.24	3.1	3.67
	2.18	3.02	3.64	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.4
	2.15	3.1	3.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.01)	3.04 ↓ (3.28)	3.49 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Largo
42.8%

Draw
30.6%

Cerro
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28.5%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

24.8%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Cerro Largo - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Cerro will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 14. Correa L. 16. Fracchia M. 20. Franca S. 8. Garcia M. 15. Assis S. 5. Marcel S. 11. Anasco M. 9. Correa T. 7. Viera G.	12. Irrazabal Y. (G) 22. Suarez D. 5. Macelli A. (C) 3. Lima A. 17. Rodriguez G. 31. Amaro J. 27. Barros C. 10. Aleman B. 33. Rijo T. 28. Cambon A. 77. Ocampo M.
Substitutes
13. Barone B. 22. Bertocchi N. 2. Chocobar G. F. 18. Daguerre D. 25. Jourdan E. 1. Moreno J. (G) 10. Pandiani A. 28. Ramos N. 19. Sellecchia F. 4. Souza F.	6. Bregante F. 25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 41. Cristoforo S. 16. Guasone J. 32. Mederos R. 21. Mendez A. 35. Nongoy P. 29. Paiva S. 19. Sosa E. 24. Valenzuela I.
Coaches
Ordonez I.	Cappuccio A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Correa L. 🟨,
23', Rijo T. 🟨,
32', Rodriguez G. 🟥,
34', Rijo T. ↓, Bregante F. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
62', Garcia M. ↓, Pandiani A. ↑,
70', Viera G. ↓, Daguerre D. ↑,
71', Cambon A. ↓, Sosa E. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Anasco M. ⚽,
79', Aleman B. ↓, Nongoy P. ↑,
79', Ocampo M. ↓, Mendez A. ↑,
79', Barros C. ↓, Paiva S. ↑,
84', Sosa E. 🟨,
85', Anasco M. ↓, Ramos N. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 0, Ramos N. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 2.

Recent performances by Cerro Largo have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cerro is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cerro Largo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:14. (average 1.4:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Largo won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:7. (average 1.5:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro - the odds 3.74 are the expected chance of winning is 24.99%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.26	Cerro Largo - Boston River	3:0 ✺
17.05.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
11.05.26	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:3 ✺
03.05.26	Progreso - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Cerro Largo - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLWL
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.05.26	Cerro - Central Español	1:0 ✺
16.05.26	Boston River - Cerro	4:1 ✺
10.05.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro	4:0 ✺
02.05.26	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Central Español - Cerro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
10.04.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	1:1
07.09.25	Cerro - Cerro Largo	0:1
19.06.25	Cerro - Cerro Largo	2:1
17.03.25	Cerro Largo - Cerro	0:0
28.09.24	Cerro Largo - Cerro	3:1
14.07.24	Cerro - Cerro Largo	0:1
24.03.24	Cerro - Cerro Largo	1:1

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