Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 14

Date: 14 August 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Charrúa (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Cerrito		Oriental de La Paz

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.00	2.60
	2.45	2.95	2.62
	2.63	3.05	2.71
	2.65	3.12	2.7	Watch
	2.6	3	2.65
	2.52	2.99	2.62
	2.48	3	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.3)	3.02 ↓ (3.15)	2.65 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerrito
35.7%

Draw
30.1%

Oriental de La Paz
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

28.3%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

27.2%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerrito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Oriental de La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oriental de La Paz than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Cerrito - Oriental de La Paz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 1 - 0, ⚽,
86', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 1.

In recent matches, Cerrito has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Oriental's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerrito won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Oriental	21	8	8	5	29:22	7	32
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
08.08.26	Colón Montevideo - Cerrito	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	Cerrito - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	Rentistas - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
12.07.26	Cerrito - Miramar Misiones	1:0 ✺
05.07.26	Tacuarembó - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTTWT
- Oriental de La Paz
Uruguayan Segunda Division
09.08.26	Oriental de La Paz - Atenas de San Carlos	0:1 ✺
03.08.26	Paysandú - Oriental de La Paz	2:1 ✺
18.07.26	Oriental de La Paz - Huracán Paso de la Arena	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	1:1 ✺
04.07.26	Oriental de La Paz - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
10.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	2:2
12.10.25	Cerrito - Oriental de La Paz	2:3
20.07.25	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	1:1
03.11.24	Cerrito - Oriental de La Paz	3:1
13.07.24	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	2:1
29.11.23	Cerrito - Oriental de La Paz	2:1
23.07.23	Oriental de La Paz - Cerrito	2:0

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