Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 9

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday


	Oriental de La Paz		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.10	2.80
	2.35	3	2.82
	2.4	3.1	2.96
	2.41	3.18	2.95	Watch
	2.35	3.1	2.9
	2.31	3.25	3.03
	2.33	3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.25)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	2.89 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oriental de La Paz
39%

Draw
29.4%

River Plate Montevideo
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

28.5%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

27.5%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oriental de La Paz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oriental de La Paz than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Oriental de La Paz - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Oriental will win (votes: 2 - 50%). River Plate will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 1 - 1, ⚽,
71', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 and 7).

Oriental is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

River Plate has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Oriental won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Oriental	21	8	8	5	29:22	7	32
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30

Last Results with these Odds

Oriental de La Paz - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 39.94%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 31.53%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oriental de La Paz
Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.06.26	Oriental de La Paz - Colón Montevideo	1:1 ✺
20.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	2:2 ✺
13.06.26	Oriental de La Paz - Rentistas	3:0 ✺
07.06.26	Miramar Misiones - Oriental de La Paz	2:2 ✺
31.05.26	Oriental de La Paz - Tacuarembó	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TTWTW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Colón Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
14.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	6:4 ✺
06.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:1 ✺
31.05.26	River Plate Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
14.03.26	River Plate Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	1:3

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